Triumph and Tragedy - IndyCar Racing in 2011

I've always been an open wheel racing fan. Growing up in NASCAR county, that hasn't always been the easiest thing. When I would mention that I had watched a race over the weekend, I would get quizzical looks when I mentioned cheering for Jimmy Vasser, Alex Zanardi, or Greg Moore (all IndyCar stars of the 90s). With the disastrous open wheel split of the 1990s and 2000s, NASCAR became the overwhelming leader in American motorsports and the only time open wheel racing would get coverage (aside from the Danica Patrick phenomenon) would be for fluke occurrences or for tragedy. Unfortunately, IndyCar made headlines for both in 2011 and both involved Dan Wheldon.

Even with the lowered profile of American open wheel racing, the Indianapolis 500 still gets significant media coverage every Memorial Day weekend. With the reunification of the IndyCar series and the leadership of IndyCar CEO Randy Bernard, the IndyCar series has seen some gains, even if modest. This year's Indy 500 was indicative of the new era that the series faced. Every expert believed that the race would be a two-team show with the Penske and Ganassi teams dueling for the win. So, of course, everyone was shocked when Alex Tagliani won the pole position in the #77 Sam Schmidt Motorsports car. The #77 team was formed largely by Tagliani on a shoestring budget and then later sold to/merged with Sam Schmidt Motorsports. Truly a case of the underdog rising to the occasion and competing with and getting the better of racing's juggernauts, Penske and Ganassi. Another underdog story for this year's Indy 500 featured 2005 Indy winner Dan Wheldon. At the beginning of the year, he was without a ride when his former team, Panther Racing hired Indy Lights champion JR Hildebrand to drive the #4 car. As most of the top teams already had their driver rosters set, Wheldon was without a drive until his former teammate at Andretti-Green Racing (now Andretti Autosport), Bryan Herta, offered him a chance to drive his car (associated with Sam Schmidt Motorsports) at Indianapolis in a one-off attempt to win the Indy 500. While Alex Tagliani won the pole position, Dan Wheldon qualified the #98 car in a very respectable 6th position.

During the race, the Ganassi team of Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon led most of the race. Alex Tagliani's qualifying setup was much better than his race setup and he faded quickly. Dan Wheldon ran in the top 5-10 for most of the race, never running at the front. As has been common recently, the race turned into a fuel mileage race. Inexplicably, Franchitti and Dixon both had fueling issues on their last pit stops and were not able to stay at the front. As the cars cycled into the pits for a splash of fuel, JR Hildebrand found himself in the lead. In the most bizarre turn of events I've ever seen at Indy, Hildebrand ran wide in Turn 4 on the last lap and hit the outside wall. Dan Wheldon then sped by to take the lead and the checkered flag. It was the only lap he led of the race. Unlike in 2005, where Wheldon was with a dominant team, this was a definite upset and was afforded the type of media coverage due such an upset. Wheldon made the interview rounds from ESPN to Letterman and all media outlets in between.

However strong Wheldon's momentum was after the Indy 500, he still didn't have a ride. Bryan Herta still didn't have the funding to run full-time, preferring to focus on securing sponsorship for 2012. So Wheldon also decided to focus on 2012, by testing the new Dallara chassis for the IndyCar series. He also dabbled in commentary, working for Versus at a few races. Searching for more media attention, series CEO Randy Bernard had planned a promotion for the season ending race at Las Vegas, where a non-series regular driver would win a $5 million bonus (to be split with a fan) if they won the race. It was hoped that some NASCAR drivers or maybe some motocross stars would bring their fan bases (and corresponding TV ratings and buzz) to the series to add to the hype around the season finale. Well, NASCAR drivers like Kasey Kahne were not allowed by their teams to participate. Motocross/extreme sports ace Travis Pastrana broke his ankle at the X Games. This left the series in a bit of a bind. Enter Dan Wheldon. He was selected to be the sole participant in the $5 million challenge (to be sponsored by Go Daddy). The IndyCar series selected Sam Schmidt Motorsports to run the car for the challenge, squeezing Alex Tagliani out of his ride. In a strange twist of fate, Tagliani would indeed drive in the Vegas finale for Bryan Herta Autosport. Wheldon ran the season's second to last race at Kentucky, finishing 14th.

The 2011 IndyCar World Championships at Las Vegas was not your garden variety season ending race, even if the $5 million prize were not considered. There was a close championship battle between Dario Franchitti and Will Power. There were a series record 34 entries, as this was to be the last race for the current iteration of the Dallara chassis. After all, upon the completion of the race, all cars would be obsolete. Therefore, many team owners ran their spare cars. Some owners chose experienced drivers like Tagliani or Paul Tracy. Others ran less experienced drivers hoping to find out if their development drivers could compete with the established IndyCar elite. The week of the race featured an unprecedented PR blitz. There were so many driver appearances that it was difficult to keep track. All of the cars were taken to the Vegas Strip. Overall, just an incredible effort to get the word out about the race. The on-track action also made headlines. The practice and qualifying speeds were very high, with Tony Kanaan's pole speed over 222 mph. Dan Wheldon qualified 29th, but by the stipulations of the $5 million challenge, he had to start 34th and last.

I woke up the morning of the race with an uneasy feeling. Maybe it was just stress from work manifesting itself, but I thought a lot about Greg Moore and the accident that took his life at California in 1999. I just felt that with the cars becoming obsolete that the drivers would be more aggressive than normal. I went into work to catch up on some projects while the DVR recorded the race. Then I received a text from one of my non-racing fan friends asking if I was watching the race. Instantly I knew it was bad. My response was, "Recording on the DVR, did someone get killed?", almost like I knew already. At that point, nothing was definite, only that there was a horrific accident with severe injuries. Then it became a festival of Twitter following, hoping, and praying.

We all know the results: open wheel racing lost one of its best drivers and best people. There have been many, many articles, blogs, tweets, etc. speculating on how the accident occurred, why the accident was fatal, and what could be done to prevent such accidents in the future. That process is still going on. The media cacophony of what is wrong with open wheel racing is almost laughable when one considers how little some folks pay attention. Criticism from folks like Jimmie Johnson is valid because he knows racing, he lives racing. However whenever tragedy strikes in racing, there are always the blowhards who couldn't name 3 drivers and all of a sudden knows exactly what the IndyCar series should do. What is important is that the racing community has rallied around the Wheldon family. An online auction has raised a great deal of money to help support the family. The new chassis for the IndyCar series, renamed the DW12 in Wheldon's memory should help prevent cars from interlocking wheels on ovals.

This has been a bit of a ramble. For those of us who are long-time fans of IndyCar racing, the 2011 season really did run the gamut of emotions, from first time winners like Ed Carpenter and Mike Conway, to another back and forth championship battle between Dario Franchitti and Will Power. However, it was the triumph and ultimate tragedy of Dan Wheldon that defined the series in 2011 and will shape the future of American open wheel racing, hopefully, a safer one.

Ain't No Party Like A Season Ticket Holder Party

Tonight was the Carolina Hurricanes annual Season Ticket Holder party. There was a decent turnout from the fans, I'd estimate a couple thousand people in total. Many of the fans were there to get autographs from the players, Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal, and Cam Ward in particular. In keeping with the Hurricanes family friendly reputation, there were events for the kids, including inflatables and a slap shot station on the ice. There were picture opportunities on the team bench, penalty box, and Zamboni, err, Olympia ice resurfacer.

Being a veteran of the season ticket holder party, I have a set routine (those who know me know I have many set routines, after all, a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds). I digress; I always tour press row (mainly to see the mural from the 2006 Stanley Cup celebration and find myself in the picture). I always tour the locker room, and I always listen to the State of the Canes address.

There is a standard format to the address. One of the Hurricanes broadcast personnel (this year it was radio broadcast legend Chuck Kaiton) has a conversation with Hurricanes coach Paul Maurice. Each year it begins with how the Hurricanes are struggling/battling/injured but still fighting hard and expecting good things to happen. You know they won't present a negative, if realistic, scenario to the team's most diehard fans.

After sitting through the last 3 years of Q&A sessions with Maurice, I've come to a conclusion... I like Paul Maurice and really want him to succeed. He really comes off as personable, self-effacing, and engaging. Maurice told some funny stories about his junior hockey career (including the time he thought he'd have to fight Brendan Shanahan), he was fairly honest about the team's struggles in the game against Ottawa. Maurice kept talking and taking fans' questions well past the allotted time. It went on so long that the arena personnel started the in-arena music in hopes of wrapping up the Q&A.

All things considered, while I have had, and continue to ave some reservations about Maurice's line combinations, offensive style, and other technical parts of his strategy, I find myself hoping more that he can find the success his playoff runs in 2002 or 2009 before the natives get too restless and we find ourselves in another coaching death spiral. The team has 9 points in 9 games, so all is not lost, but if the Canes don't make the playoffs this year, then that may mean that Mo Must Go.... again.

Until next time, drive the net and keep your stick on the ice...

Hey, Is This Thing On?

After a long hiatus, I figured I'd give the blogging thing another go. There are a few topics I'd like to cover, from the odd juxtaposition of State's football and basketball programs over the last 20 years, to the Carolina Hurricanes latest youth movement, to the tragic death of Dan Wheldon and its affect on the future of open wheel racing in the United States.

I'll also try to mix in a few takes on music, beer, food, or whatever else is on my mind. I've missed the outlet that blogging gives me, even if only 3 people read it.

Here we go..... Again.

NFL Draft - First Round Predictions

I talked with my friend Marty over at Average Guy's Sports Blog and we came up with the idea of doing an NFL Draft First Round preview, complete with our predictions of who will be drafted where. An original idea, I know, pay no attention to Mel Kiper or Todd McShay on ESPN.

I'm interested to see who the Chargers pick up, with two picks in the top 40. There has been a lot of player turnover, so despite the 3 AFC West championships in a row, they will have early playing time available.

The Panthers don't have a first rounder, thanks to the Everette Brown trade last year. Each of the last two drafts, Fox and Hurney have traded away the next year's first round pick. Jake Delhomme is gone, so that's addition by subtraction, at least.

The pick's have alternated, and you'll see some overlap. The person who picked first for that given selection has the first comment. St. Louis Rams and Average Guy's Sports Blog, you are on the clock!

1. St. Louis Rams

Average Guy - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Outsider - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Avg. Guy - A few months ago I was convinced the Rams had to take Ndamukong Suh. I loved the potential of him disrupting every running play and putting heat on the QB. That's something the Rams have not seen in a long time. But, Sam Bradford has made a believer out of me. His performance at his pro day was impressive and I think it was all it took to convince Billy Devaney and the Rams brass that he has all the tools. Hopefully Bradford stays healthy and becomes the franchise I've been waiting for since Jim Everett. I mean that with all do respect to Kurt Warner. I love the guy but I don't think he was ever considered a franchise quarterback.

Outsider - I thought and think that Ndamukong Suh is the best player available in the draft. However, in the National Football League (tm Ron Jaworski) a premium is placed on the quarterback position. In the last 3 years, rookie quarterbacks Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez have led their teams to playoff berths. Bradford has all of the tools. He is incredibly accurate and can make the deep throws. If the Rams can a) protect him, and b) get him some receivers, Bradford can stabilize the QB position and lead the Rams back to the top of the ever-suspect NFC West. I do take issue with the Warner not being a franchise QB, but that's another argument for another time.

2. Detroit Lions

Avg. Guy - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Outsider - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Outsider - A great pickup for the Lions. Suh dominated at the college level playing big-time competition. He is adept at both stopping the run and rushing the passer. Suh could team with offseason acquisition Kyle Vanden Bosch to form a decent defensive line pairing. With Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Jay Cutler quarterbacking NFC North rivals, the Lions need all of the help they can get on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, they could move down and draft one of the offensive tackles available to help protect last year's #1 overall pick, Matthew Stafford.

Avg. Guy - Like you I think Suh is the best player available. The Lions continue to build with a guy who should dominate the interior trenches for years to come.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Avg. Guy - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Outsider - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Avg. Guy - Tampa fans were spoiled for a while with Warren Sapp blowing up offenses from the inside of the defensive line. They'll be spoiled again with McCoy. I don't see the same type of explosion in him that I see in Suh but he's still really good. The Bucs have a lot of needs so they can easily take the best player here and that is McCoy.

Outsider - Tampa, like Detroit has needs across the board, but McCoy is the pick here. Tampa can't afford to miss out on the disruptive force that McCoy can bring to their interior. Tampa has their QB of the future in Josh Freeman. Could Tampa trade out of this pick and add some more picks to address their needs? Then another team (Browns, Bills, ???) could trade up to pick Jimmy Clausen?

4. Washington Redskins

Avg. Guy - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Outsider - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Outsider - The first four picks, all from the Big 12, none from Big 12 Champ Texas. With the Donovan McNabb trade, it only makes sense to go with the tackle. Chris Samuels's retirement opens it up for Okung to start immediately at left tackle. With this pick and Mike Shanahan's ability to direct offenses, look for some shootouts in the NFC East this year.

Avg. Guy - And how mad will you be if you have to watch McNabb carve up the Eagles defense? Here's the team I had pegged to trade up with the Rams for the #1 pick and the right to draft Sam Bradford. After the McNabb trade that is obviously not going to happen. Here's where we start getting into a string of picks where need is likely to trump talent/rank. The Redskins O-line was a huge deficiency last year and did not protect Jason Campbell at all. With the big investment in McNabb the Redskins can not let that happen. The "experts" seem to be divided on the OT rankings but I think Okung is the logical pick here.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Avg. Guy - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Outsider - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

Avg. Guy - The Kansas City pick may be the linchpin that holds the key to the first half of the first round. With Bulaga, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen, Oklahoma tackle Trent Williams and Tennessee safety Eric Berry still available this may be a place where a team trades up to get a big talent. The Chiefs could really use a playmaker in their defensive backfield and Berry certainly fits that bill. But, if they keep the pick, I see them investing more in the offensive line. They need to protect their QB of the future Matt Cassel, last year's big acquisition.

Outsider - I think this pick gets traded. The Chiefs feel that they can get one of the players at the top of their board (one of the tackles or Berry) with the 7th or 9th pick. The also have enough needs that they'll want to accumulate picks. Can the Chiefs con the Bills and Browns into a bidding war over the fifth pick? Clausen wowed the scouts in his pro day. I think he will be a much better pro than Brady Quinn and scouts seem to agree.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Avg. Guy - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Outsider - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Outsider - The Seahawks have their QB of the present in Matt Hasslebeck and their QB of the future in Charlie Whitehurst. Veteran Tackle, Walter Jones has been hobbled over the last two seasons and this would be a great opportunity to add a good tackle prospect. The Seahawks have two first round picks and don't see an elite tackle prospect being available at 14.

Avg. Guy - I've got to agree. The run on tackles continues with the Seahawks who are absolutely desperate for one. Seattle allowed an embarassing 44 sacks in 2009.

7. Cleveland Browns

Avg. Guy - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Outsider - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Avg. Guy - The Cleveland war room will be extremely excited to see Berry fall to them. He's one of the top five talents in the draft but because of the run on tackles he'll be available for the Browns who have been working to rebuild their defense in the offseason. Mike Holmgren will get his eventual defensive leader with this pick. I know you're shocked I didn't tab Clausen for the pick.

Outsider - Another pick in agreement. Although it may be K.C. picking Berry here. For some reason, top safeties aren't valued as much as other positions. Still, Berry can cover and hit and will be a great fit wherever he's picked.

8. Oakland Raiders

Avg. Guy - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Outsider - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Outsider - Now it gets fun. Really, I can see almost anyone drafted here. Bulaga makes the most sense for the Raiders, as they need help to protect JaMarcus Russell (bust) or open up holes for Darren McFadden (bust) or maybe give time so that Darrius Heyward-Bey (epic bust) can be open. Given that line of thinking, maybe they'll draft Greg Paulus or T.A. McLendon.

Avg. Guy - Hilarious! An offensive tackle would make the most sense here...and that is exactly why the Raiders won't pick one. It should be no surprise that I think Oakland's pick will be a big surprise. I think they will continue their obsession with speed and playmaking and choose Spiller. I have no idea who will be handing and throwing him the ball though.

9. Buffalo Bills

Avg. Guy - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Outsider - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Avg. Guy - After spending a lot of time thinking about Jimmy Clausen I think Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix will choose to strengthen their defense and take Williams. The Bills are transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and desperately need an interior lineman to stuff the run. Williams should do that for them for many years.

Outsider - I think if the Bills can't get Clausen, they'll draft an offensive tackle. They could potentially go for C.J. Spiller as Marshawn Lynch is sure to be dealt. Davis is big and has blocked for some prolific offenses, both passing and rushing. Heck, I even saw him attempt a pass at the 2008 Papajohns.com Bowl.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

Avg. Guy - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Outsider - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

Outsider - At this point in the draft presentation, ESPN will go into full Tim Tebow mode. For his sake, hopefully his hometown Jaguars have enough sense not to pick him. With the signing of Aaron Kampman, the Jaguars filled a hole at defensive end. Now they can fill another hole at linebacker. McClain should start almost immediately in the middle of the Jags 4-3 defense.

Avg. Guy - Not just because of his name, I think Morgan is the pick here. The Jags play in a division where Indianapolis lives on having two speed pass rushing ends putting pressure on the quarterback at all times. With Morgan and Kampman, Jacksonville will be taking the same approach. The Jaguars have some additional needs but the chance to solidify the defense from the front line out is too much to pass up.

11. Denver Broncos

Avg. Guy - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

Outsider - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

Avg. Guy - McClain is the perfect pick for the Broncos who cut former starting ILB Andra Davis. McClain will come right in, take over a leadership role on the defense and make an immediate impact. With the addition of McClain and the veteran linemen Denver picked up in free agency their defense starts to look like one of the toughest in the AFC.

Outsider - The thought is that the Brandon Marshall - Josh McDaniels rift will end with the talented, yet difficult Marshall being traded elsewhere. Bryant was prolific in the Big 12 and should carry that level of production to the NFL. The Broncos will need a physical receiver to play opposite the speedy Eddie Royal.

12. Miami Dolphins

Avg. Guy - Earl Thomas, S, Texas

Outsider - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Outsider - The Dolphins missed out on their most obvious need, wide receiver. Dan Williams is a good consolation prize. He's a run stuffer who is suited to play at nose tackle in the 3-4 defense. Tony Sparano adds another piece to his defense, potentially replacing aging vet Jason Ferguson.

Avg. Guy - Bill Parcells and his crew will be ecstatic to have a talent like Thomas fall to them here at 12. He was a ball hawk at Texas and will come into Miami and strengthen the back line right away.

13. San Francisco 49ers

Avg. Guy - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

Outsider - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Avg. Guy - The 49ers will not go into this draft planning to grab a QB in the first round. But Clausen dropping to them at pick 13 will provide an opportunity they cannot refuse. Alex Smith is ultimately not the QB Mike Singletary would like to run his offense. Singletary wants to run a team based on defense and running the ball, but wisely he was adjusting his game plan around his talent. With a second pick in the first round, San Francisco can afford to gamble here. With Bradford and Clausen drafted into the same division this will lead to endless comparisons. Of course, I hope Bradford stomps him every time.

Outsider - After multiple offensive picks, Samurai Mike goes defense. Joe Haden would provide the 49ers with a true shutdown corner. Haden started for 3 years at Florida and produced on defense and special teams. The 49ers could draft a tackle or C.J. Spiller here, but they'll gamble that one of the tackles will be available at 17 and that they can get a complementary back for Frank Gore in a later round.

14. Seattle Seahawks

Avg. Guy - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Outsider - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Outsider - Pete Carroll does backflips and invites both Sir Mix-A-Lot and Eddie Vedder to the Seahawks facility to celebrate. Seattle gets the most dynamic runner in the draft. Spiller was exceptional as a receiver out of the backfield at Clemson, as well as on special teams. Believe me, I've seen him roast the Wolfpack up close and personal on multiple occasions. Seattle, with the picks of Trent Williams and Spiller will be hailed as the surprise of the opening day of the draft.

Avg. Guy - The Seahawks improved their offensive line with their first pick. Now it will be time to improve their defensive line. Pass rushers are quickly becoming a part of the NFL's glamour set. Pierre-Paul's ridiculous speed and athleticism will be to Pete Carroll like a shiny, new red bike under the Christmas tree is to a 9-year old boy.

15. New York Giants

Avg. Guy - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Outsider - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Avg. Guy - The Giants would love to have McClain fall to them at this pick. I definitely don't see that happening. I think that will make them a good candidate for a trade to pick up a linebacker later in the 1st round. If they keep the pick they may go with an offensive lineman. But I think they go with the best talent available here and that is Haden. In what may be the new gunslinging NFC East I guess you can't have too many good cornerbacks.

Outsider - This is a perfect spot for the Giants to trade out of if McClain is not available. If the Giants do stay at 15, I can see them going for the best player left on the board and picking Cousin Derrick. I think the Giants believe they can get a Sean Weatherspoon or Sergio Kindle later in the round and pick up a pick or two for later. Tennessee also has need for a DE to replace Kyle Vanden Bosch, so if a team values either Morgan or Jason Pierre-Paul, this may be the spot to jump up and get them.

16. Tennessee Titans

Avg. Guy - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama

Outsider - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Outsider - The bookend on a mini-run of defensive ends. Pierre-Paul has amazing athleticism for a defensive lineman. His frame and college productivity remind me of Manny Lawson, the former hybrid DE/OLB from NC State. Will he be able to parlay the skill into NFL production? Pierre-Paul, at the least should prove to be an upgrade to a Titan front four that has suffered from free agency losses of stalwarts Alfred Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Avg. Guy - Pierre-Paul would be an excellent pick for the Titans as they would love to get a good DE, but I see him going earlier. They also need to add some quality and depth to their defensive backfield and Jackson will help them do that. If they think Tye Hill is any sort of answer there I can tell you he is not.

17. San Francisco 49ers

Avg. Guy - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Outsider - Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

Avg. Guy - After picking up their QB of the future with the 13th pick the Niners get a lot of value and fill a need with Davis. I've got Davis falling quite a ways and unfortunately San Fran will be the beneficiary.

Outsider - Ah, the pick that should belong to the Panthers. THe 49ers really need to upgrade their offensive line, particularly the right tackle position. While the marquee offensive tackles have been snapped up at this point, many people feel that Iupati can slide outside to the tackle position and maintain his production. Iupati is a safer pick than reaching for one of the other tackles available.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

Avg. Guy - Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

Outsider - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

Outsider - The Steelers once vaunted offensive line has eroded over the last few years. If the Steelers want to keep Ben Roethlisberger upright, they'll begin to invest in their o-line. Pouncey won the Rimington Trophy as college football's best center. Now if he can only knock some sense into his soon to be knuclehead, college skirt chasing, almost rapist quarterback.

Avg. Guy - Yes, I was going to say that if they want Roethlisberger to remain upright they may want to keep him away from the sauce. No doubt the Steelers need offensive line help and since I still have Iupati available he'll be the pick here.

19. Atlanta Falcons

Avg. Guy - Brandon Graham, DE-OLB, Michigan

Outsider - Brandon Graham, DE-OLB, Michigan

Avg. Guy - Atlanta has one glaring need and that is DE. Of course, there are a number of teams ahead of them that need the same thing. So at this point I have all of the top line prospects off the board. Graham may be a bit of a need-based reach. But for a team that may be a player or two away from a big playoff run the reach may be worth it.

Outsider - Can't argue with you on this one. John Abraham's sack total declined from 16.5 in 2008 to 5.5 in 2009. The Falcons need a complimentary threat off the edge.

20. Houston Texans

Avg. Guy - Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Outsider - Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Outsider -The Texans need a big play threat at RB to compliment Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson in the passing game. Of their 4 backs in their committee approach, only Arian Foster (he of the pterodactyl language) averaged over 4 yards a carry. With increased production in the backfield, the Texans offense could possibly lead the team to its first ever playoff berth.

Avg. Guy - Again we are on the same page. A cornerback may be considered by the Texans, but the position that they can get the most bang for their buck for with this pick is Mathews. He would be an excellent complement to Steve Slaton in the backfield.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Avg. Guy - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

Outsider - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Avg. Guy - A major slider in my projections, Bryant has a lot of talent but has made some poor decisions. The Bengals may have signed Antonio Bryant, but the chance to add another Bryant will be too much to pass up with the 21st pick. I would not be surprised if another team traded up to an earlier pick to get Bryant if he starts to slip past the middle of the first round.

Outsider - The definition of a need pick. The Bengals need a compliment in the passing game to Chad Ochocinco and free agent acquisition Antonio Bryant. The Bengals seem to be convinced that the torn ligaments that cost Gresham his senior season. Compared favorably in college to 2009 first round draft pick Brandon Pettigrew of Oklahoma State.

22. New England Patriots

Avg. Guy - Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas

Outsider - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State

Outsider - Ah, the Patriots. Bill Belichick is the Bizarro Al Davis. You never know who either of them will pick, yet Belichick's picks pan out where Davis; do not. Another spike in the ESPN Tebow-gasm. Still, I think the Patriots stay true to their needs and get Vince Wilfork some help on the defensive line. This pick would also provide the Patriots insurance in case Wilfork is not re-signed in the offseason. Though with Belichick's draft history, it will surprise no one if the Pats trade out of this pick.

Avg. Guy - Certainly agree with you on the likelihood of New England wheeling and dealing. The Patriots do have more needs than usual to fill and a bunch of picks so they are likely to move up and down through trades to get the players they target. A key focus for the Patriots will be to get some more pressure on the quarterback. Kindle's experience playing end and outside linebacker makes him an optimal talent to jump into New England's 3-4 alignment.

23. Green Bay Packers

Avg. Guy - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Outsider - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Avg. Guy - Green Bay could certainly use some offensive line help, but their major need is T and quality at that position is not available here. Ultimately it wasn't their offensive line that let them down in the playoffs, it was their defense. The addition of Wilson, an excellent CB, should help the pass defense. In another note, I'm looking forward to your Philly pick.

Outsider - I agree with you on this pick. I can't see the Packers as the type of team to reach for a tackle like Bruce Campbell. The Packers secondary was burned by Farve and the Viking receivers twice last year, not to mention the score-fest that was their playoff loss to the Cardinals. Wilson should help shore up both the defense and special teams. He'll be the heir apparent to Charles Woodson.

24. Philadelphia Eagles

Avg. Guy - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

Outsider - Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

Outsider - It's strange to say, but the Eagles have so many holes on defense. What was a force to be reckoned with a few years ago has succumbed to age and the Eagles philosophy of trading/releasing players before they begin to fade. The Eagles will consider defensive backs Earl Thomas and Taylor Mays, but their need of an edge rusher to fit the Jim Johnson blitz, blitz, and blitz some more defense will trump the secondary concerns. Brian Orakpo (a Texas product like Kindle) was one of the top performing rookies last year and the Eagles hope to see similar results. The Eagles could package later picks (they have 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds) to jump back up into the first round if either of the elite secondary prospects slip.

Avg. Guy - You are right, the Eagles could definitely use some help in the defensive backfield, at both CB and S. At this point in the round the quality at those two positions is not there. Pouncey is a solid talent who should be able to come right in and hold up well in the middle of the line where Philadelphia has had some recent injury issues.

25. Baltimore Ravens

Avg. Guy - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Outsider - Earl Thomas, CB/S, Texas

Avg. Guy - Another team that could use help at cornerback, the Ravens will pass on settling at that position for a much better talent in Gresham. Joe Flacco was superb last year. His biggest issue was his receivers dropping balls. The additions of Anquan Boldin and Gresham could make the Ravens one of the most dangerous offenses in the AFC.

Outsider - The Ravens do need secondary help and Earl Thomas fits the bill perfectly. He can play at either corner or safety and would help shore up a shaky Ravens back four. He will start out as a nickel corner and perhaps eventually replace Hall of Famer-to be Ed Reed.

26. Arizona Cardinals

Avg. Guy - Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

Outsider - Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

Outsider - The Cardinals desperately need help in two areas, linebacker, and sports psychologist for QB Matt Leinart. Jerry Hughes was a sack machine at the college level. In his last 2 years at TCU he had 26.5 sacks. Arizona needs a replacement for Bertrand Berry and potentially Chike Okeafor.

Avg. Guy - Well jeez, I thought I was going out on a limb with this pick until I saw that you were projecting the same thing! One way or another the Cardinals really need some front seven help on the defense. Hughes is a playmaker and is capable of making plays at linebacker and defensive end. Impressed with his athleticism, versatility and potential, I think Arizona will jump on him with the 26th pick.

27. Dallas Cowboys

Avg. Guy - Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland

Outsider - Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland

Avg. Guy - Here comes the workout champion! Campbell blew people away at the combine with his impressive mix of size, speed and strength. The challenge is that his technical skills are nowhere near his physical attributes. I think Jerry Jones falls in love with his He-Man body type and brings him on board. Hopefully, he won't make the decision while he's drunk at a bar and on somebody's cell phone video.

Outsider - Wow, two picks in a row. Dallas needs an offensive tackle to replace Flozell Adams. So they go to the man that wow'ed 'em at both the NFL Combine and in the Evil Dead Trilogy. This is my BOOM-stick! Hail to the king, Jerry Jones... Hail to the king!

28. San Diego Chargers

Avg. Guy - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

Outsider - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

Outsider - Mt. Cody goes to San Diego. The Chargers weakness on the defensive line was exploited in the playoff loss to the Jets. The Chargers really need help on both lines and at running back, but can afford to pick up the running back in the second round. His conditioning has been questioned, but the Chargers need to replace Jamal Williams up front with a run-stuffer who can let the speedy linebackers make the tackles.

Avg. Guy - Okay, make it three in a row. A month ago I would have told you that the Chargers would definitely select a RB with this pick. After doing my research, I'm leaning much more toward them picking a NT/DT. Cody is the perfect replacement for Jamal Williams at the center of San Diego's front three. They should still be able to get a quality RB in the 2nd round.

29. New York Jets

Avg. Guy - Taylor Mays, S, USC

Outsider - Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Avg. Guy - The Jets could go a few different ways here. They are most likely to focus on defense. When Rex Ryan was the D Coordinator in Baltimore his team always succeeded because he had playmakers and ballhawks. Mays can be both, especially in a defense designed by Ryan. If not safety, the Jets are likely to pick up a defensive lineman or outside linebacker.

Outsider - I'll predict Mays' USC teammate Griffen to the Jets. Marques Douglas, who started 12 of the 16 games at DE for the Jets last year is in a contract year. Griffen would give the Jets insurance and depth at that position. If the Jets do sign Jason Taylor for their rush outside linebacker, then this pick will either be defensive line or secondary help. If the Jets can get any form of pass rush, they'll be very dangerous.

30. Minnesota Vikings

Avg. Guy - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers

Outsider - Taylor Mays, S, USC

Outsider - Minnesota needs help in the secondary, having to play against Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler twice each year. Mays played free safety at USC, but perhaps would be more suited at the strong safety in the NFL. The Vikings would be amenable to that transition. The Vikings DBs not named Cedric Griffin (who blew out his knee in the NFC Championship game) had a grand total of 3 interceptions last year. At this point, the ESPN Tebow watch goes into full overload.

Avg. Guy - McCourty fills a need position for the Vikings and should be a nice player for them. You are definitely right about ESPN and Tebow. Especially here because one of the big questions surrounding Minnesota's draft is if they will address their need for a future quarterback in the first three rounds. I don't think they will do it here.

31. Indianapolis Colts

Avg. Guy - Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State

Outsider - Brian Price, DT, UCLA

Avg. Guy - Picking at the tail end of the first round, the Colts will look to the best available talent
that can play on either line. Odrick, 2009 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, is a solid lineman that can potentially play defensive end or tackle.

Outsider - I agree that the Colts need help along the defensive line. Price was Pac-10 defensive player of the year. Price will bring some energy and help free up Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to make some plays.

32. New Orleans Saints

Avg. Guy - Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Outsider - Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

Outsider - The final pick for this evening of the draft will be overshadowed by the Tebow talk. Weatherspoon had a great amount of experience in coverage facing the wide-open Big 12 offenses. He will be a great fit in the frenetic, blitzing Saints defense. Safety could be an option for the Saints if they decide not to re-sign Darren Sharper long-term. Will any team be desperate enough to draft Tebow here? I doubt it, but look for the Heisman-winner to go in the first few picks of the second round. While Tebow is known for his strong Christian beliefs, never, ever refer to him as Football Jesus. There's already a Football Jesus and he wears #17 in San Diego.

Avg. Guy - Oh my goodness I just threw up all over the place...you had to get that last reference in there didn't you? The funny thing is I actually saw the New Orleans version of Football Jesus last month...it was very cool. Speaking of New Orleans, they really need a defensive end or outside linebacker. With Griffen and Weatherspoon still available they will have their choice of solid answers at either position. Ultimately I think Griffen's high potential ceiling and freakish athleticism will lead to him being the pick.

Enjoy the picks. We'll see how wrong we both are starting Thursday night!

NHL Playoff Preview - 1st Round

First of all, check out Rob Ullman's NHL Playoff preview, he has a unique way of making his predictions. Here's his Eastern and Western Conference previews.

Eastern Conference:

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

Washington won the President's Trophy for having the best overall record in the NHL in the regular season. That's usually a kiss of death, kids. Washington dropped Game 1 to Montreal, but that can be overcome (2006 Stanley Cup Champion Carolina Hurricanes). Washington's shaky goaltending and defense will cost them in the playoffs, just not this round.

Prediction: Caps in 6.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers took Game 1 in an upset. Martin Brodeur has struggled recently in the playoffs, especially to teams with Cam Ward in net. I can't see Brian Boucher carrying the Flyers through an entire round. I think Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise will do enough to get Jersey through to the second round.

Prediction: Devils in 6.

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins

To quote my favorite band, Dropkick Murphys, "Go! Go! Black & Gold!". Alas, Ryan Miller is the best goalie in the world and Boston doesn't have enough offense to hold off the Slugs. Buffalo survives only to have their hopes dashed.... again.

Prediction: Sabres in 5.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators

Pittsburgh kind of limped into the playoffs and it carried over into a Game 1 upset by the Sens. Marc-Andre Fleury has not played up to his capabilities since the Olympic Break. Still, any team with Crosby, Malkin, Jordan Staal, and Bill Guerin should be able to put up the offense necessary to overcome shaky goaltending. I think the Pens will win and set up a Round 2 matchup with Ovechkin and the Capitals.

Prediction: Pens in 7.

Western Conference:

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche

To quote Carl Lewis, Uh-oh! The Sharks are perennial playoff chokers. The Avalanche are the plucky, never-say-die team of scrappy kids. If there's any sort of training or highlight montage, it would make a great 80s movie. Well, Avs fans, you're the best around, nothing's gonna ever get you down!!!

Prediction: Avs in 7.

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators

Chicago is the odds-on favorite in the West. Nashville is another plucky underdog team. Chicago's only concerns are goaltending and health on the blue line. If Cristobal Huet can be even serviceable, then the 'Hawks should have enough offense to go far.

Prediction: 'Hawks in 5.

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings

The Canucks won an exciting Game 1 with an overtime goal by Mikael Samuelsson. The Kings are young and exciting, but I think their playoff inexperience will cost them. Roberto Luongo was clutch in the Olympic tournament but has been a spotty big game goalie in the past. The Sedin Twins will do enough to get Vancouver to the second round.

Prediction: Canucks in 7.

(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings

The Desert Dogs won Game 1 in overtime. Detroit really struggled during the first half of the season, but were one of the top teams later in the season. If goalie Jimmy Howard can produce, then Detroit will be a force deep into the playoffs. After all, goalies have been able to win the Stanley Cup in their rookie seasons before (2006, Cam Ward and 1986, Patrick Roy).

Prediction: Wings in 6.

There you go. Hopefully I will be able to blog a bit more frequently. Actually, the NFL draft prediction blog is almost done and it's gonna be a veritable tome of football geek awesomeness. As a prima donna receiver once said, "Getcha popcorn ready!"

NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview

Here's a link to my East Region Preview in case you missed it.

First Round:

(1) Duke vs. (16) Play-In Game Winner

Duke wins big, still plays starters 30+ minutes.

Duke wins 98-56.

(8) California vs. (9) Louisville

Fraud conference (PAC 10) regular season champ vs. middling Big East team. Despite the fact that the Papa John's commercials are beyond irritating, I'll pick the 'Cards to win and Rick Pitino to make some waitress a lucky woman after the game.

UL wins 72-66.

(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Utah St.

Utah St. is widely considered the last team in the field. Texas A&M has won in the opening round four straight years. I see Utah St. leading most of the game, but A&M pulling it out at the end.

Aggies win 67-65.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) Siena

As Carl Lewis would say, "Uh-oh!". Robbie Hummel's injury has really hurt the Boilermakers as evidenced by their putrid offensive output in the first half against Minnesota in the Big 10 Tourney. I guess I have to make the upset pick here, don't I?

Siena wins 64-56.

(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Old Dominion

I really can't stand Notre Dame. I really want to pick against them. I can't stand anyone named Hansbrough. Not a fan of Luke Harangody either (and truth be told, ND has played better without him). Still, ND is just on too much of a roll right now.

Irish fight on, 76-67.

(3) Baylor vs. (14) Sam Houston St.

Baylor has Tweety Carter. Sam Houston St. has, uh, I have no idea. Next.

Baylor wins a shootout 88-80.

(7) Richmond vs. (10) St. Mary's

Another trendy upset pick. St. Mary's beat Gonzaga for the WCC title. Richmond almost beat Wake earlier this year (when Wake was good). I'll resort to the Dominant Mascot Theory. Spider beat Gaels. Per Wikipedia, The term in its broadest sense is used to refer to the Irish, Highland Scots (or Scots of Gaelic or mixed Gaelic descent) and Manx. Since this game would be played shortly after St. Patrick's Day, the Gaels would all be hung over.

Spiders spin a web, any size, catch the Gaels just like flies, look out! Richmond wins 58-54.

(2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris

Poor Bob Morris, I don't think he'll be able to guard Scottie Reynolds. Even if he could, what about the other four players?

'Nova cruises 91-58.

Second Round:

(1) Duke vs. (9) Louisville

Originally, I had this pegged as an upset special. Louisville has the athletes that it would take to frustrate Duke, but I just don't think they have the discipline to play smart for 40 minutes. Duke has enough veteran leadership to outlast Louisville.

Duke advances 67-58.

(5) Texas A&M vs. (13) Siena

Billy Gillespie used to coach at Texas A&M. Paul Hewitt used to coach at Siena. As Nick Bakay would say, Push.

Aggies win 71-58.

(3) Baylor vs. (6) Notre Dame

Another Big 12-Big East slugfest. As hot as ND has been down the stretch, they will definitely be the fashionable pick here. Baylor plays mostly zone defense and ND is a good 3-point shooting team. Recipe for an upset? I think Baylor is able to use their speed to frustrate the slower ND team.

Bears win 74-71.

(2) Villanova vs. (7) Richmond

One factor definitely in Villanova's favor is experience. Scottie Reynolds & Co. have made deep tournament runs before. Richmond is far less experienced (last NCAA appearance in 2004). Here's where it shows.

Wildcats advance 78-66.

Sweet Sixteen:

(1) Duke vs. (5) Texas A&M

A good matchup for Duke. A&M is not the big, fast, athletic team it will take to beat Duke. If Duke doesn't beat themselves, they'll advance to the Elite Eight.

Duke wins 68-61.

(2) Villanova vs. (3) Baylor

Now we're talkin'! This will be an up-and-down game full of 3 pointers from Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, LaceDarious Dunn, & Tweety Carter. A true smorgasbord of guard play. I think the 'Nova guards make one more play than the Baylor guards.

'Nova gets to face Duke... again. 76-73.

Elite Eight:

(1) Duke vs. (2) Villanova

Villanova absolutely ran Duke out of the gym in their matchup last year, winning 77-54. That said, Duke is better this year and their hole in the middle is not quite as pronounced with the improvement of Brian Zoubek and the emergence of the Plumlee brothers. Still, can Duke win when at least two of their big 3 of Scheyer, Singler, and Smith don't score? Heck, they barely beat a mediocre Georgia Tech team in the ACC Tourney final with Scheyer and Singler having off shooting nights. Duke haters, this is your game. Reynolds and Fisher lead 'Nova to an early lead and Duke just can't quite shoot themselves back in it.

'Nova makes it back to the Final Four, winning 73-64.

Well, we're halfway through the brackets, with Kentucky and Villanova making their way to the Final Four. Tomorrow, I'll try to make the bracket predictions for the Midwest and West Regions. Stay tuned!

NCAA Tournament - East Region Preview

Welcome to my NCAA Preview Blogs. I'll predict each region in a blog and then the Final Four in a separate blog. This way, you'll know who not to pick in your office pools....

The at-large field is one of the weaker in recent memory. All of the talking heads on ESPN had all 1 and 2 seeds advancing. Will I? Stay Tuned...

First Round:

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) E. Tenn. St.

Should be a cakewalk for the Wildcats. John Wall will spend most of the last 10 minutes of the game doing his dance for the cameras.

UK wins 101-64.

(8) Texas vs. (9) Wake Forest

Battle of the flame-outs. Both teams struggled mightily down the stretch. Both teams can't hit free throws. Hey, somebody's got to win, right?

Wake wins 71-70 because it would make my wife happy.

(5) Temple vs. (12) Cornell

Cornell is the trendy upset pick. They almost upset Kansas in the regular season. Temple beat Villanova. This should be a great game.

Temple wins 64-62 on a buzzer-beater.

(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Wofford

Wisconsin plays ugly Big 10 basketball. But that ugly basketball beat both Duke and Maryland. Wofford's mascot is the Terriers. So they can't even count on the Dominant Mascot Theory.

Wisconsin Badgers the Terriers 68-51.

(6) Marquette vs. (11) Washington

Washington had to win the Pac 10 tourney to get a bid. Of course the Pac 10 tourney was almost as competitive as the 1995 NC State Intramural 'C' League tourney that we got robbed in on a crappy over the back call. Of course, Marquette lost at home to NC State, but now that's a quality loss!

Golden Eagles prevail 71-65.

(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Montana

Great mascot matchup. Lobos vs. Grizzlies.

I think the Fightin' Steve Alfords (New Mexico) win easily 81-60.

(7) Clempson vs. (10) Missouri

Each year, my ACC bias makes me pick Clempson to win a game or two and each year they lose. If this works, you owe me, Purnell.

Mizzou 67-61.

(2) West by God Virginia vs. (15) Morgan St.

While Morgan St. is well named, WVU is too good. As they say up there, Let's Go Mountaineers, Let's Go Drink Some Beers!

WVU in a cakewalk 88-55.

Second Round:

(1) Kentucky vs. (9) Wake Forest

Wake has the size to bang with Cousins and Patterson in Aminu, Woods, and McFarland. Wake has the speed and defense to keep up with Wall in Ish Smith and L.D. Williams. So it will come down to coaching. John Calipari vs. Dino Gaudio. Uh, yeah... sorry, dear.

'Ca..., er, Kentucky wins 87-63.

(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Temple

First team to 50 points wins! This game might be a cure for insomnia, or it might be a classic tourney finish. I'll predict the former.

Wisconsin wins 52-48.

(3) New Mexico vs. (6) Marquette

New Mexico's best wins are against Texas A&M and Cal. Cal?!?!?

Marquette leads the Big East charge into the Sweet 16 67-65.

(2) West by God Virginia vs. (10) Missouri

Should be a very fast-paced game. WVU can handle the pressure, though.

WVU advances 81-71.

Sweet 16:

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Wisconsin

They just don't have athletes like Wall, Cousins, Patterson, etc in the Big 10. This game is only close if Kentucky keeps it that way.

UK wins 76-63.

(2) West by God Virginia vs. (6) Marquette

These two teams met once in the regular season with the Mountaineers winning on a buzzer beater. WVU is playing better now and while it will be a close game, it won't be a Gus Johnson classic.

WVU prevails 66-59.

Elite Eight:

(1) Kentucky vs. (2) West by God Virginia

Now this game has the makings of a classic. The SEC champs against the Big East Champs for the right to go the Final Four. West Virginia's depth and defense will frustrate Kentucky. Will the Wildcats be able to withstand their first real test of the tourney against the veteran Mountaineers? I say John Wall starts to discover his inner Derrick Rose and wills the Wildcats to a Final Four berth.

UK advances to the Final Four 77-73.

It only remains to be seen whether John Calipari has to vacate this Final Four berth like his two previous trips. Only time will tell.

Next time, I'll preview the South Regional. Stay tuned!