IndyCar Series Preview:
The State of American Open Wheel Racing:
Since the mid-'90s, open wheel racing in the US has fallen off the veritable cliff thanks to the disastrous CART-IRL schism. I mean, even Gary Bettman (commissioner of the NHL and generally reviled by everyone except his mother) thinks that IRL founder Tony George is a poor promoter and manager of his sport. Eventually, CART's business model failed and Tony George's deep pockets (thanks to his family's ownership of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway) prevailed. Well, thanks to a power play at the IMS board, Tony George is now out as the head honcho of the IRL, replaced by Randy Bernard. The series has struggled with sponsorships for the teams, and consequently, many teams are forced to accept lesser drivers who bring sponsors with them. Quality North American drivers like Graham Rahal, Paul Tracy, and Buddy Rice are rideless (at the present time) and backmarkers like Milka Duno have full season commitments thanks to the funding issues. After all, no bucks, no Buck Rogers.
On the track, the dominance of Target Chip Ganassi Racing (Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon) and Team Penske (Ryan Briscoe, Helio (Dancing With The Stars) Castroneves, and Will Power) have been overshadowed by the marketing phenomenon known as Danica Patrick. She is a good driver, perhaps very good on the ovals, but the overwhelming amount of attention she gets (especially in her NASCAR foray) really does start to take away from those who might deserve it more. Last year, Dario Franchitti beat out teammate Scott Dixon and Ryan Briscoe for the championship in the last race in Homestead. Will this year bring new blood in victory lane or more Penske/Ganassi dominance? I'll break the series down by team...
The Contenders:
Target Chip Ganassi Racing:
Dario Franchitti (10):
The defending champ and Mr. Ashley Judd. He came back to Indycars after his disastrous foray into NASCAR in '08. He can win on road courses and ovals. He's won the Indy 500. Really has few weaknesses. Top team and equipment.
Scott Dixon (9):
The 2003 and 2008 series champ. Won the Indy 500 in 2008 as well. Like Franchitti has very few weaknesses. He did have a couple of accidents last year which may have cost him the title.
Team Penske:
Ryan Briscoe (6):
Lost out on the championship by mere points. Excellent on the road courses and getting better on the ovals. The likely favorite this year.
The Darkhorses:
Team Penske: Helio Castroneves (3) and Will Power (12):
Castroneves won the Indy 500 but struggled most of the rest of the season. Power is recovering from a broken back. He will be a force on the road courses but most likely not good enough on the ovals.
Andretti Autosport: Tony Kanaan (11):
Had a horrible 2009 season but is capable of winning on any track. Will the team give him a good enough car, though?
The Others That Can Win:
Andretti Autosport: Danica Patrick (7), Marco Andretti (26), and Ryan Hunter-Reay (37):
Danica can win on ovals, but is really bad on road courses. Andretti struggles with crashing. Hunter-Reay is in his first year with good equipment. He's won in the past on road courses.
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing: Justin Wilson (22):
He's dangerous on any road course and can and should win a couple this year. The big question is the quality of equipment he'll get.
Panther Racing: Dan Wheldon (4):
Good driver, just can't seem to get it done with this team.
Sarah Fisher Racing/???: Graham Rahal (67): Should be in a better car with a better team. If he ever gets with a top team, look out. Still crashes too much, especially on ovals.
Others of Note:
KV Racing: Takuma Sato (5), E.J. Viso (8), Mario Moraes (32), Paul Tracy (15):
Sato is an F1 vet. Viso and Moraes are young drivers who will be race winners someday. Tracy deserves a fulltime ride in the twilight of his career. Still has more personality and balls that the rest of the field put together.
The Predictions:
- Ganassi and Penske win 14 of the 17 races including the Indy 500 (I'll say Franchitti wins it).
- Justin Wilson and Will Power each win twice on road courses.
- Danica Patrick makes more headlines than anyone else due to her flirtations with NASCAR and ticks off drivers by doing so. She has one podium, three top 5s and no wins.
- Tony Kanaan wins a race, as does Graham Rahal.
- There is one surprise winner, I say Dan Wheldon at Texas.
- Scott Dixon edges Ryan Briscoe for the series title.
The last two years have provided good racing on the track and political upheaval off of it. Cost cutting measures were proposed. Existing teams and manufacturers threatened a breakaway series. In the end, nothing happened. There is new management in the series, featuring former Ferrari boss, Jean Todt.
3 new teams have entered this year's championship. A fourth, American based USF1, could not produce their car in time. Last year's Constructors' Champions (Team Championship), Brawn Mercedes, have re-badged themselves as Mercedes GP. They managed to lure Michael Schumacher out of retirement. This is much like Michael Jordan coming out of retirement to play in the NBA. We'll see if Schumacher is the Bulls' Jordan or the Wizards' Jordan. Last year's champion Jenson Button switched to McLaren Mercedes. Two time World Champion Fernando Alonso has gone to Ferrari. There are many other changes up and down the grid. I'll summarize in the predictions.
The Teams:
Title Contenders:
McLaren Mercedes:
Jenson Button (1) / Lewis Hamilton (2):
Both Brits and the last 2 World Champions. Can they coexist on the same team? McLaren is famous for allowing its drivers to duke it out amongst themselves. McLaren had an awful car at the beginning of 2009, torpedoing Hamilton's chances from the beginning. If they get a good start, look out. Button leaves last year's champs and looks to stake his claim as England's hero... unless Hamilton does it first.
Ferrari:
Felipe Massa (7) / Fernando Alonso (8):
Like McLaren, Ferrari struggled at the beginning of last year. Massa missed the latter part of the year due to inuries sustained when a bolt from another car flew off and hit him in the helmet. Can he return to form? Alonso is a great driver, but impatient if things don't go as he expects them to.
Red Bull Renault:
Sebastian Vettel (5) / Mark Webber (6):
Vettel was the runner-up last year. He just could not overcome the overwhelming lead Button amassed during the first part of the season. He might be the favorite this year. Webber had reliability issues, both with car and driver last year.
Mercedes GP:
Michael Schumacher (3) / Nico Rosberg (4):
They are only listed as contenders in deference to Schumacher's amazing career. At 41, can he recapture the magic? Rosberg is a classic Schumacher #2 driver. There are no questions whose team this is.
Podium Contenders:
Williams Cosworth:
Rubens Barrichello (9) / Nico Hulkenburg (10):
Barrichello can run at the front in any given weekend providing the car runs well. Hulkenburg is a rookie.
Renault:
Robert Kubica (11) / Vitaly Petrov (12):
Kubica has won races for BMW in the past. Petrov is a rookie. Not much expected of him.
The Others
Force India Mercedes:
Adrian Sutil (14) / Vitantonio Liuzzi (15):
Sutil has run up front in some races. Liuzzi is a former Toro Rosso driver.
Toro Rosso Ferrari:
Sebastien Buemi (16) / Jaime Alguersuari (17):
Young drivers, both have shown promise.
Lotus Cosworth:
Jarno Trulli (18) / Heikki Kovaleinen (19):
Veteran drivers, new team. They'll get the most out of the car which probably won't be enough to get many points.
HRT Cosworth:
Karun Chandhok (20) / Bruno Senna (21):
Bruno is the nephew of F1 legend Ayrton Senna. Never heard of Chandhok. This team will be a veritable moving chicane in some races.
BMW Sauber Ferrari:
Pedro de la Rosa (22) / Kamui Kobayashi (23):
de la Rosa is a veteran test driver. The BMW name was only kept due to some weird rule. They'll struggle.
Virgin Cosworth:
Timo Glock (24) / Lucas di Grassi (25):
Glock is an F1/Champ Car vet. Driving for a new team will certainly test his patience.
Predictions:
- McLaren wins the Constructors' Championship in a close fight with Ferrari and Red Bull.
- Hamilton and Button take enough points away from each other for Vettel to win the World Drivers' Championship. Alonso also factors into the title fight. All 4 drivers are in contention at the final race of the season.
- Schumacher wins one race.... in the rain.
- Drivers complain a lot about the new teams being too slow and a race or two may be affected by them.
- All races are won by the top 4 teams (McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes).
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