NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview

Here's a link to my East Region Preview in case you missed it.

First Round:

(1) Duke vs. (16) Play-In Game Winner

Duke wins big, still plays starters 30+ minutes.

Duke wins 98-56.

(8) California vs. (9) Louisville

Fraud conference (PAC 10) regular season champ vs. middling Big East team. Despite the fact that the Papa John's commercials are beyond irritating, I'll pick the 'Cards to win and Rick Pitino to make some waitress a lucky woman after the game.

UL wins 72-66.

(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Utah St.

Utah St. is widely considered the last team in the field. Texas A&M has won in the opening round four straight years. I see Utah St. leading most of the game, but A&M pulling it out at the end.

Aggies win 67-65.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) Siena

As Carl Lewis would say, "Uh-oh!". Robbie Hummel's injury has really hurt the Boilermakers as evidenced by their putrid offensive output in the first half against Minnesota in the Big 10 Tourney. I guess I have to make the upset pick here, don't I?

Siena wins 64-56.

(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Old Dominion

I really can't stand Notre Dame. I really want to pick against them. I can't stand anyone named Hansbrough. Not a fan of Luke Harangody either (and truth be told, ND has played better without him). Still, ND is just on too much of a roll right now.

Irish fight on, 76-67.

(3) Baylor vs. (14) Sam Houston St.

Baylor has Tweety Carter. Sam Houston St. has, uh, I have no idea. Next.

Baylor wins a shootout 88-80.

(7) Richmond vs. (10) St. Mary's

Another trendy upset pick. St. Mary's beat Gonzaga for the WCC title. Richmond almost beat Wake earlier this year (when Wake was good). I'll resort to the Dominant Mascot Theory. Spider beat Gaels. Per Wikipedia, The term in its broadest sense is used to refer to the Irish, Highland Scots (or Scots of Gaelic or mixed Gaelic descent) and Manx. Since this game would be played shortly after St. Patrick's Day, the Gaels would all be hung over.

Spiders spin a web, any size, catch the Gaels just like flies, look out! Richmond wins 58-54.

(2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris

Poor Bob Morris, I don't think he'll be able to guard Scottie Reynolds. Even if he could, what about the other four players?

'Nova cruises 91-58.

Second Round:

(1) Duke vs. (9) Louisville

Originally, I had this pegged as an upset special. Louisville has the athletes that it would take to frustrate Duke, but I just don't think they have the discipline to play smart for 40 minutes. Duke has enough veteran leadership to outlast Louisville.

Duke advances 67-58.

(5) Texas A&M vs. (13) Siena

Billy Gillespie used to coach at Texas A&M. Paul Hewitt used to coach at Siena. As Nick Bakay would say, Push.

Aggies win 71-58.

(3) Baylor vs. (6) Notre Dame

Another Big 12-Big East slugfest. As hot as ND has been down the stretch, they will definitely be the fashionable pick here. Baylor plays mostly zone defense and ND is a good 3-point shooting team. Recipe for an upset? I think Baylor is able to use their speed to frustrate the slower ND team.

Bears win 74-71.

(2) Villanova vs. (7) Richmond

One factor definitely in Villanova's favor is experience. Scottie Reynolds & Co. have made deep tournament runs before. Richmond is far less experienced (last NCAA appearance in 2004). Here's where it shows.

Wildcats advance 78-66.

Sweet Sixteen:

(1) Duke vs. (5) Texas A&M

A good matchup for Duke. A&M is not the big, fast, athletic team it will take to beat Duke. If Duke doesn't beat themselves, they'll advance to the Elite Eight.

Duke wins 68-61.

(2) Villanova vs. (3) Baylor

Now we're talkin'! This will be an up-and-down game full of 3 pointers from Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, LaceDarious Dunn, & Tweety Carter. A true smorgasbord of guard play. I think the 'Nova guards make one more play than the Baylor guards.

'Nova gets to face Duke... again. 76-73.

Elite Eight:

(1) Duke vs. (2) Villanova

Villanova absolutely ran Duke out of the gym in their matchup last year, winning 77-54. That said, Duke is better this year and their hole in the middle is not quite as pronounced with the improvement of Brian Zoubek and the emergence of the Plumlee brothers. Still, can Duke win when at least two of their big 3 of Scheyer, Singler, and Smith don't score? Heck, they barely beat a mediocre Georgia Tech team in the ACC Tourney final with Scheyer and Singler having off shooting nights. Duke haters, this is your game. Reynolds and Fisher lead 'Nova to an early lead and Duke just can't quite shoot themselves back in it.

'Nova makes it back to the Final Four, winning 73-64.

Well, we're halfway through the brackets, with Kentucky and Villanova making their way to the Final Four. Tomorrow, I'll try to make the bracket predictions for the Midwest and West Regions. Stay tuned!