NFL Draft - First Round Predictions

I talked with my friend Marty over at Average Guy's Sports Blog and we came up with the idea of doing an NFL Draft First Round preview, complete with our predictions of who will be drafted where. An original idea, I know, pay no attention to Mel Kiper or Todd McShay on ESPN.

I'm interested to see who the Chargers pick up, with two picks in the top 40. There has been a lot of player turnover, so despite the 3 AFC West championships in a row, they will have early playing time available.

The Panthers don't have a first rounder, thanks to the Everette Brown trade last year. Each of the last two drafts, Fox and Hurney have traded away the next year's first round pick. Jake Delhomme is gone, so that's addition by subtraction, at least.

The pick's have alternated, and you'll see some overlap. The person who picked first for that given selection has the first comment. St. Louis Rams and Average Guy's Sports Blog, you are on the clock!

1. St. Louis Rams

Average Guy - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Outsider - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Avg. Guy - A few months ago I was convinced the Rams had to take Ndamukong Suh. I loved the potential of him disrupting every running play and putting heat on the QB. That's something the Rams have not seen in a long time. But, Sam Bradford has made a believer out of me. His performance at his pro day was impressive and I think it was all it took to convince Billy Devaney and the Rams brass that he has all the tools. Hopefully Bradford stays healthy and becomes the franchise I've been waiting for since Jim Everett. I mean that with all do respect to Kurt Warner. I love the guy but I don't think he was ever considered a franchise quarterback.

Outsider - I thought and think that Ndamukong Suh is the best player available in the draft. However, in the National Football League (tm Ron Jaworski) a premium is placed on the quarterback position. In the last 3 years, rookie quarterbacks Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez have led their teams to playoff berths. Bradford has all of the tools. He is incredibly accurate and can make the deep throws. If the Rams can a) protect him, and b) get him some receivers, Bradford can stabilize the QB position and lead the Rams back to the top of the ever-suspect NFC West. I do take issue with the Warner not being a franchise QB, but that's another argument for another time.

2. Detroit Lions

Avg. Guy - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Outsider - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Outsider - A great pickup for the Lions. Suh dominated at the college level playing big-time competition. He is adept at both stopping the run and rushing the passer. Suh could team with offseason acquisition Kyle Vanden Bosch to form a decent defensive line pairing. With Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Jay Cutler quarterbacking NFC North rivals, the Lions need all of the help they can get on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, they could move down and draft one of the offensive tackles available to help protect last year's #1 overall pick, Matthew Stafford.

Avg. Guy - Like you I think Suh is the best player available. The Lions continue to build with a guy who should dominate the interior trenches for years to come.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Avg. Guy - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Outsider - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Avg. Guy - Tampa fans were spoiled for a while with Warren Sapp blowing up offenses from the inside of the defensive line. They'll be spoiled again with McCoy. I don't see the same type of explosion in him that I see in Suh but he's still really good. The Bucs have a lot of needs so they can easily take the best player here and that is McCoy.

Outsider - Tampa, like Detroit has needs across the board, but McCoy is the pick here. Tampa can't afford to miss out on the disruptive force that McCoy can bring to their interior. Tampa has their QB of the future in Josh Freeman. Could Tampa trade out of this pick and add some more picks to address their needs? Then another team (Browns, Bills, ???) could trade up to pick Jimmy Clausen?

4. Washington Redskins

Avg. Guy - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Outsider - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Outsider - The first four picks, all from the Big 12, none from Big 12 Champ Texas. With the Donovan McNabb trade, it only makes sense to go with the tackle. Chris Samuels's retirement opens it up for Okung to start immediately at left tackle. With this pick and Mike Shanahan's ability to direct offenses, look for some shootouts in the NFC East this year.

Avg. Guy - And how mad will you be if you have to watch McNabb carve up the Eagles defense? Here's the team I had pegged to trade up with the Rams for the #1 pick and the right to draft Sam Bradford. After the McNabb trade that is obviously not going to happen. Here's where we start getting into a string of picks where need is likely to trump talent/rank. The Redskins O-line was a huge deficiency last year and did not protect Jason Campbell at all. With the big investment in McNabb the Redskins can not let that happen. The "experts" seem to be divided on the OT rankings but I think Okung is the logical pick here.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Avg. Guy - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Outsider - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

Avg. Guy - The Kansas City pick may be the linchpin that holds the key to the first half of the first round. With Bulaga, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen, Oklahoma tackle Trent Williams and Tennessee safety Eric Berry still available this may be a place where a team trades up to get a big talent. The Chiefs could really use a playmaker in their defensive backfield and Berry certainly fits that bill. But, if they keep the pick, I see them investing more in the offensive line. They need to protect their QB of the future Matt Cassel, last year's big acquisition.

Outsider - I think this pick gets traded. The Chiefs feel that they can get one of the players at the top of their board (one of the tackles or Berry) with the 7th or 9th pick. The also have enough needs that they'll want to accumulate picks. Can the Chiefs con the Bills and Browns into a bidding war over the fifth pick? Clausen wowed the scouts in his pro day. I think he will be a much better pro than Brady Quinn and scouts seem to agree.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Avg. Guy - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Outsider - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Outsider - The Seahawks have their QB of the present in Matt Hasslebeck and their QB of the future in Charlie Whitehurst. Veteran Tackle, Walter Jones has been hobbled over the last two seasons and this would be a great opportunity to add a good tackle prospect. The Seahawks have two first round picks and don't see an elite tackle prospect being available at 14.

Avg. Guy - I've got to agree. The run on tackles continues with the Seahawks who are absolutely desperate for one. Seattle allowed an embarassing 44 sacks in 2009.

7. Cleveland Browns

Avg. Guy - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Outsider - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Avg. Guy - The Cleveland war room will be extremely excited to see Berry fall to them. He's one of the top five talents in the draft but because of the run on tackles he'll be available for the Browns who have been working to rebuild their defense in the offseason. Mike Holmgren will get his eventual defensive leader with this pick. I know you're shocked I didn't tab Clausen for the pick.

Outsider - Another pick in agreement. Although it may be K.C. picking Berry here. For some reason, top safeties aren't valued as much as other positions. Still, Berry can cover and hit and will be a great fit wherever he's picked.

8. Oakland Raiders

Avg. Guy - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Outsider - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Outsider - Now it gets fun. Really, I can see almost anyone drafted here. Bulaga makes the most sense for the Raiders, as they need help to protect JaMarcus Russell (bust) or open up holes for Darren McFadden (bust) or maybe give time so that Darrius Heyward-Bey (epic bust) can be open. Given that line of thinking, maybe they'll draft Greg Paulus or T.A. McLendon.

Avg. Guy - Hilarious! An offensive tackle would make the most sense here...and that is exactly why the Raiders won't pick one. It should be no surprise that I think Oakland's pick will be a big surprise. I think they will continue their obsession with speed and playmaking and choose Spiller. I have no idea who will be handing and throwing him the ball though.

9. Buffalo Bills

Avg. Guy - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Outsider - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Avg. Guy - After spending a lot of time thinking about Jimmy Clausen I think Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix will choose to strengthen their defense and take Williams. The Bills are transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and desperately need an interior lineman to stuff the run. Williams should do that for them for many years.

Outsider - I think if the Bills can't get Clausen, they'll draft an offensive tackle. They could potentially go for C.J. Spiller as Marshawn Lynch is sure to be dealt. Davis is big and has blocked for some prolific offenses, both passing and rushing. Heck, I even saw him attempt a pass at the 2008 Papajohns.com Bowl.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

Avg. Guy - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Outsider - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

Outsider - At this point in the draft presentation, ESPN will go into full Tim Tebow mode. For his sake, hopefully his hometown Jaguars have enough sense not to pick him. With the signing of Aaron Kampman, the Jaguars filled a hole at defensive end. Now they can fill another hole at linebacker. McClain should start almost immediately in the middle of the Jags 4-3 defense.

Avg. Guy - Not just because of his name, I think Morgan is the pick here. The Jags play in a division where Indianapolis lives on having two speed pass rushing ends putting pressure on the quarterback at all times. With Morgan and Kampman, Jacksonville will be taking the same approach. The Jaguars have some additional needs but the chance to solidify the defense from the front line out is too much to pass up.

11. Denver Broncos

Avg. Guy - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

Outsider - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

Avg. Guy - McClain is the perfect pick for the Broncos who cut former starting ILB Andra Davis. McClain will come right in, take over a leadership role on the defense and make an immediate impact. With the addition of McClain and the veteran linemen Denver picked up in free agency their defense starts to look like one of the toughest in the AFC.

Outsider - The thought is that the Brandon Marshall - Josh McDaniels rift will end with the talented, yet difficult Marshall being traded elsewhere. Bryant was prolific in the Big 12 and should carry that level of production to the NFL. The Broncos will need a physical receiver to play opposite the speedy Eddie Royal.

12. Miami Dolphins

Avg. Guy - Earl Thomas, S, Texas

Outsider - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Outsider - The Dolphins missed out on their most obvious need, wide receiver. Dan Williams is a good consolation prize. He's a run stuffer who is suited to play at nose tackle in the 3-4 defense. Tony Sparano adds another piece to his defense, potentially replacing aging vet Jason Ferguson.

Avg. Guy - Bill Parcells and his crew will be ecstatic to have a talent like Thomas fall to them here at 12. He was a ball hawk at Texas and will come into Miami and strengthen the back line right away.

13. San Francisco 49ers

Avg. Guy - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

Outsider - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Avg. Guy - The 49ers will not go into this draft planning to grab a QB in the first round. But Clausen dropping to them at pick 13 will provide an opportunity they cannot refuse. Alex Smith is ultimately not the QB Mike Singletary would like to run his offense. Singletary wants to run a team based on defense and running the ball, but wisely he was adjusting his game plan around his talent. With a second pick in the first round, San Francisco can afford to gamble here. With Bradford and Clausen drafted into the same division this will lead to endless comparisons. Of course, I hope Bradford stomps him every time.

Outsider - After multiple offensive picks, Samurai Mike goes defense. Joe Haden would provide the 49ers with a true shutdown corner. Haden started for 3 years at Florida and produced on defense and special teams. The 49ers could draft a tackle or C.J. Spiller here, but they'll gamble that one of the tackles will be available at 17 and that they can get a complementary back for Frank Gore in a later round.

14. Seattle Seahawks

Avg. Guy - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Outsider - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Outsider - Pete Carroll does backflips and invites both Sir Mix-A-Lot and Eddie Vedder to the Seahawks facility to celebrate. Seattle gets the most dynamic runner in the draft. Spiller was exceptional as a receiver out of the backfield at Clemson, as well as on special teams. Believe me, I've seen him roast the Wolfpack up close and personal on multiple occasions. Seattle, with the picks of Trent Williams and Spiller will be hailed as the surprise of the opening day of the draft.

Avg. Guy - The Seahawks improved their offensive line with their first pick. Now it will be time to improve their defensive line. Pass rushers are quickly becoming a part of the NFL's glamour set. Pierre-Paul's ridiculous speed and athleticism will be to Pete Carroll like a shiny, new red bike under the Christmas tree is to a 9-year old boy.

15. New York Giants

Avg. Guy - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Outsider - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Avg. Guy - The Giants would love to have McClain fall to them at this pick. I definitely don't see that happening. I think that will make them a good candidate for a trade to pick up a linebacker later in the 1st round. If they keep the pick they may go with an offensive lineman. But I think they go with the best talent available here and that is Haden. In what may be the new gunslinging NFC East I guess you can't have too many good cornerbacks.

Outsider - This is a perfect spot for the Giants to trade out of if McClain is not available. If the Giants do stay at 15, I can see them going for the best player left on the board and picking Cousin Derrick. I think the Giants believe they can get a Sean Weatherspoon or Sergio Kindle later in the round and pick up a pick or two for later. Tennessee also has need for a DE to replace Kyle Vanden Bosch, so if a team values either Morgan or Jason Pierre-Paul, this may be the spot to jump up and get them.

16. Tennessee Titans

Avg. Guy - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama

Outsider - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Outsider - The bookend on a mini-run of defensive ends. Pierre-Paul has amazing athleticism for a defensive lineman. His frame and college productivity remind me of Manny Lawson, the former hybrid DE/OLB from NC State. Will he be able to parlay the skill into NFL production? Pierre-Paul, at the least should prove to be an upgrade to a Titan front four that has suffered from free agency losses of stalwarts Alfred Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Avg. Guy - Pierre-Paul would be an excellent pick for the Titans as they would love to get a good DE, but I see him going earlier. They also need to add some quality and depth to their defensive backfield and Jackson will help them do that. If they think Tye Hill is any sort of answer there I can tell you he is not.

17. San Francisco 49ers

Avg. Guy - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Outsider - Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

Avg. Guy - After picking up their QB of the future with the 13th pick the Niners get a lot of value and fill a need with Davis. I've got Davis falling quite a ways and unfortunately San Fran will be the beneficiary.

Outsider - Ah, the pick that should belong to the Panthers. THe 49ers really need to upgrade their offensive line, particularly the right tackle position. While the marquee offensive tackles have been snapped up at this point, many people feel that Iupati can slide outside to the tackle position and maintain his production. Iupati is a safer pick than reaching for one of the other tackles available.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

Avg. Guy - Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

Outsider - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

Outsider - The Steelers once vaunted offensive line has eroded over the last few years. If the Steelers want to keep Ben Roethlisberger upright, they'll begin to invest in their o-line. Pouncey won the Rimington Trophy as college football's best center. Now if he can only knock some sense into his soon to be knuclehead, college skirt chasing, almost rapist quarterback.

Avg. Guy - Yes, I was going to say that if they want Roethlisberger to remain upright they may want to keep him away from the sauce. No doubt the Steelers need offensive line help and since I still have Iupati available he'll be the pick here.

19. Atlanta Falcons

Avg. Guy - Brandon Graham, DE-OLB, Michigan

Outsider - Brandon Graham, DE-OLB, Michigan

Avg. Guy - Atlanta has one glaring need and that is DE. Of course, there are a number of teams ahead of them that need the same thing. So at this point I have all of the top line prospects off the board. Graham may be a bit of a need-based reach. But for a team that may be a player or two away from a big playoff run the reach may be worth it.

Outsider - Can't argue with you on this one. John Abraham's sack total declined from 16.5 in 2008 to 5.5 in 2009. The Falcons need a complimentary threat off the edge.

20. Houston Texans

Avg. Guy - Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Outsider - Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Outsider -The Texans need a big play threat at RB to compliment Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson in the passing game. Of their 4 backs in their committee approach, only Arian Foster (he of the pterodactyl language) averaged over 4 yards a carry. With increased production in the backfield, the Texans offense could possibly lead the team to its first ever playoff berth.

Avg. Guy - Again we are on the same page. A cornerback may be considered by the Texans, but the position that they can get the most bang for their buck for with this pick is Mathews. He would be an excellent complement to Steve Slaton in the backfield.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Avg. Guy - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

Outsider - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Avg. Guy - A major slider in my projections, Bryant has a lot of talent but has made some poor decisions. The Bengals may have signed Antonio Bryant, but the chance to add another Bryant will be too much to pass up with the 21st pick. I would not be surprised if another team traded up to an earlier pick to get Bryant if he starts to slip past the middle of the first round.

Outsider - The definition of a need pick. The Bengals need a compliment in the passing game to Chad Ochocinco and free agent acquisition Antonio Bryant. The Bengals seem to be convinced that the torn ligaments that cost Gresham his senior season. Compared favorably in college to 2009 first round draft pick Brandon Pettigrew of Oklahoma State.

22. New England Patriots

Avg. Guy - Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas

Outsider - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State

Outsider - Ah, the Patriots. Bill Belichick is the Bizarro Al Davis. You never know who either of them will pick, yet Belichick's picks pan out where Davis; do not. Another spike in the ESPN Tebow-gasm. Still, I think the Patriots stay true to their needs and get Vince Wilfork some help on the defensive line. This pick would also provide the Patriots insurance in case Wilfork is not re-signed in the offseason. Though with Belichick's draft history, it will surprise no one if the Pats trade out of this pick.

Avg. Guy - Certainly agree with you on the likelihood of New England wheeling and dealing. The Patriots do have more needs than usual to fill and a bunch of picks so they are likely to move up and down through trades to get the players they target. A key focus for the Patriots will be to get some more pressure on the quarterback. Kindle's experience playing end and outside linebacker makes him an optimal talent to jump into New England's 3-4 alignment.

23. Green Bay Packers

Avg. Guy - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Outsider - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Avg. Guy - Green Bay could certainly use some offensive line help, but their major need is T and quality at that position is not available here. Ultimately it wasn't their offensive line that let them down in the playoffs, it was their defense. The addition of Wilson, an excellent CB, should help the pass defense. In another note, I'm looking forward to your Philly pick.

Outsider - I agree with you on this pick. I can't see the Packers as the type of team to reach for a tackle like Bruce Campbell. The Packers secondary was burned by Farve and the Viking receivers twice last year, not to mention the score-fest that was their playoff loss to the Cardinals. Wilson should help shore up both the defense and special teams. He'll be the heir apparent to Charles Woodson.

24. Philadelphia Eagles

Avg. Guy - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

Outsider - Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

Outsider - It's strange to say, but the Eagles have so many holes on defense. What was a force to be reckoned with a few years ago has succumbed to age and the Eagles philosophy of trading/releasing players before they begin to fade. The Eagles will consider defensive backs Earl Thomas and Taylor Mays, but their need of an edge rusher to fit the Jim Johnson blitz, blitz, and blitz some more defense will trump the secondary concerns. Brian Orakpo (a Texas product like Kindle) was one of the top performing rookies last year and the Eagles hope to see similar results. The Eagles could package later picks (they have 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds) to jump back up into the first round if either of the elite secondary prospects slip.

Avg. Guy - You are right, the Eagles could definitely use some help in the defensive backfield, at both CB and S. At this point in the round the quality at those two positions is not there. Pouncey is a solid talent who should be able to come right in and hold up well in the middle of the line where Philadelphia has had some recent injury issues.

25. Baltimore Ravens

Avg. Guy - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Outsider - Earl Thomas, CB/S, Texas

Avg. Guy - Another team that could use help at cornerback, the Ravens will pass on settling at that position for a much better talent in Gresham. Joe Flacco was superb last year. His biggest issue was his receivers dropping balls. The additions of Anquan Boldin and Gresham could make the Ravens one of the most dangerous offenses in the AFC.

Outsider - The Ravens do need secondary help and Earl Thomas fits the bill perfectly. He can play at either corner or safety and would help shore up a shaky Ravens back four. He will start out as a nickel corner and perhaps eventually replace Hall of Famer-to be Ed Reed.

26. Arizona Cardinals

Avg. Guy - Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

Outsider - Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

Outsider - The Cardinals desperately need help in two areas, linebacker, and sports psychologist for QB Matt Leinart. Jerry Hughes was a sack machine at the college level. In his last 2 years at TCU he had 26.5 sacks. Arizona needs a replacement for Bertrand Berry and potentially Chike Okeafor.

Avg. Guy - Well jeez, I thought I was going out on a limb with this pick until I saw that you were projecting the same thing! One way or another the Cardinals really need some front seven help on the defense. Hughes is a playmaker and is capable of making plays at linebacker and defensive end. Impressed with his athleticism, versatility and potential, I think Arizona will jump on him with the 26th pick.

27. Dallas Cowboys

Avg. Guy - Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland

Outsider - Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland

Avg. Guy - Here comes the workout champion! Campbell blew people away at the combine with his impressive mix of size, speed and strength. The challenge is that his technical skills are nowhere near his physical attributes. I think Jerry Jones falls in love with his He-Man body type and brings him on board. Hopefully, he won't make the decision while he's drunk at a bar and on somebody's cell phone video.

Outsider - Wow, two picks in a row. Dallas needs an offensive tackle to replace Flozell Adams. So they go to the man that wow'ed 'em at both the NFL Combine and in the Evil Dead Trilogy. This is my BOOM-stick! Hail to the king, Jerry Jones... Hail to the king!

28. San Diego Chargers

Avg. Guy - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

Outsider - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

Outsider - Mt. Cody goes to San Diego. The Chargers weakness on the defensive line was exploited in the playoff loss to the Jets. The Chargers really need help on both lines and at running back, but can afford to pick up the running back in the second round. His conditioning has been questioned, but the Chargers need to replace Jamal Williams up front with a run-stuffer who can let the speedy linebackers make the tackles.

Avg. Guy - Okay, make it three in a row. A month ago I would have told you that the Chargers would definitely select a RB with this pick. After doing my research, I'm leaning much more toward them picking a NT/DT. Cody is the perfect replacement for Jamal Williams at the center of San Diego's front three. They should still be able to get a quality RB in the 2nd round.

29. New York Jets

Avg. Guy - Taylor Mays, S, USC

Outsider - Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Avg. Guy - The Jets could go a few different ways here. They are most likely to focus on defense. When Rex Ryan was the D Coordinator in Baltimore his team always succeeded because he had playmakers and ballhawks. Mays can be both, especially in a defense designed by Ryan. If not safety, the Jets are likely to pick up a defensive lineman or outside linebacker.

Outsider - I'll predict Mays' USC teammate Griffen to the Jets. Marques Douglas, who started 12 of the 16 games at DE for the Jets last year is in a contract year. Griffen would give the Jets insurance and depth at that position. If the Jets do sign Jason Taylor for their rush outside linebacker, then this pick will either be defensive line or secondary help. If the Jets can get any form of pass rush, they'll be very dangerous.

30. Minnesota Vikings

Avg. Guy - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers

Outsider - Taylor Mays, S, USC

Outsider - Minnesota needs help in the secondary, having to play against Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler twice each year. Mays played free safety at USC, but perhaps would be more suited at the strong safety in the NFL. The Vikings would be amenable to that transition. The Vikings DBs not named Cedric Griffin (who blew out his knee in the NFC Championship game) had a grand total of 3 interceptions last year. At this point, the ESPN Tebow watch goes into full overload.

Avg. Guy - McCourty fills a need position for the Vikings and should be a nice player for them. You are definitely right about ESPN and Tebow. Especially here because one of the big questions surrounding Minnesota's draft is if they will address their need for a future quarterback in the first three rounds. I don't think they will do it here.

31. Indianapolis Colts

Avg. Guy - Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State

Outsider - Brian Price, DT, UCLA

Avg. Guy - Picking at the tail end of the first round, the Colts will look to the best available talent
that can play on either line. Odrick, 2009 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, is a solid lineman that can potentially play defensive end or tackle.

Outsider - I agree that the Colts need help along the defensive line. Price was Pac-10 defensive player of the year. Price will bring some energy and help free up Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to make some plays.

32. New Orleans Saints

Avg. Guy - Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Outsider - Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

Outsider - The final pick for this evening of the draft will be overshadowed by the Tebow talk. Weatherspoon had a great amount of experience in coverage facing the wide-open Big 12 offenses. He will be a great fit in the frenetic, blitzing Saints defense. Safety could be an option for the Saints if they decide not to re-sign Darren Sharper long-term. Will any team be desperate enough to draft Tebow here? I doubt it, but look for the Heisman-winner to go in the first few picks of the second round. While Tebow is known for his strong Christian beliefs, never, ever refer to him as Football Jesus. There's already a Football Jesus and he wears #17 in San Diego.

Avg. Guy - Oh my goodness I just threw up all over the place...you had to get that last reference in there didn't you? The funny thing is I actually saw the New Orleans version of Football Jesus last month...it was very cool. Speaking of New Orleans, they really need a defensive end or outside linebacker. With Griffen and Weatherspoon still available they will have their choice of solid answers at either position. Ultimately I think Griffen's high potential ceiling and freakish athleticism will lead to him being the pick.

Enjoy the picks. We'll see how wrong we both are starting Thursday night!

NHL Playoff Preview - 1st Round

First of all, check out Rob Ullman's NHL Playoff preview, he has a unique way of making his predictions. Here's his Eastern and Western Conference previews.

Eastern Conference:

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

Washington won the President's Trophy for having the best overall record in the NHL in the regular season. That's usually a kiss of death, kids. Washington dropped Game 1 to Montreal, but that can be overcome (2006 Stanley Cup Champion Carolina Hurricanes). Washington's shaky goaltending and defense will cost them in the playoffs, just not this round.

Prediction: Caps in 6.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers took Game 1 in an upset. Martin Brodeur has struggled recently in the playoffs, especially to teams with Cam Ward in net. I can't see Brian Boucher carrying the Flyers through an entire round. I think Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise will do enough to get Jersey through to the second round.

Prediction: Devils in 6.

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins

To quote my favorite band, Dropkick Murphys, "Go! Go! Black & Gold!". Alas, Ryan Miller is the best goalie in the world and Boston doesn't have enough offense to hold off the Slugs. Buffalo survives only to have their hopes dashed.... again.

Prediction: Sabres in 5.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators

Pittsburgh kind of limped into the playoffs and it carried over into a Game 1 upset by the Sens. Marc-Andre Fleury has not played up to his capabilities since the Olympic Break. Still, any team with Crosby, Malkin, Jordan Staal, and Bill Guerin should be able to put up the offense necessary to overcome shaky goaltending. I think the Pens will win and set up a Round 2 matchup with Ovechkin and the Capitals.

Prediction: Pens in 7.

Western Conference:

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche

To quote Carl Lewis, Uh-oh! The Sharks are perennial playoff chokers. The Avalanche are the plucky, never-say-die team of scrappy kids. If there's any sort of training or highlight montage, it would make a great 80s movie. Well, Avs fans, you're the best around, nothing's gonna ever get you down!!!

Prediction: Avs in 7.

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators

Chicago is the odds-on favorite in the West. Nashville is another plucky underdog team. Chicago's only concerns are goaltending and health on the blue line. If Cristobal Huet can be even serviceable, then the 'Hawks should have enough offense to go far.

Prediction: 'Hawks in 5.

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings

The Canucks won an exciting Game 1 with an overtime goal by Mikael Samuelsson. The Kings are young and exciting, but I think their playoff inexperience will cost them. Roberto Luongo was clutch in the Olympic tournament but has been a spotty big game goalie in the past. The Sedin Twins will do enough to get Vancouver to the second round.

Prediction: Canucks in 7.

(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings

The Desert Dogs won Game 1 in overtime. Detroit really struggled during the first half of the season, but were one of the top teams later in the season. If goalie Jimmy Howard can produce, then Detroit will be a force deep into the playoffs. After all, goalies have been able to win the Stanley Cup in their rookie seasons before (2006, Cam Ward and 1986, Patrick Roy).

Prediction: Wings in 6.

There you go. Hopefully I will be able to blog a bit more frequently. Actually, the NFL draft prediction blog is almost done and it's gonna be a veritable tome of football geek awesomeness. As a prima donna receiver once said, "Getcha popcorn ready!"

NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview

Here's a link to my East Region Preview in case you missed it.

First Round:

(1) Duke vs. (16) Play-In Game Winner

Duke wins big, still plays starters 30+ minutes.

Duke wins 98-56.

(8) California vs. (9) Louisville

Fraud conference (PAC 10) regular season champ vs. middling Big East team. Despite the fact that the Papa John's commercials are beyond irritating, I'll pick the 'Cards to win and Rick Pitino to make some waitress a lucky woman after the game.

UL wins 72-66.

(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Utah St.

Utah St. is widely considered the last team in the field. Texas A&M has won in the opening round four straight years. I see Utah St. leading most of the game, but A&M pulling it out at the end.

Aggies win 67-65.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) Siena

As Carl Lewis would say, "Uh-oh!". Robbie Hummel's injury has really hurt the Boilermakers as evidenced by their putrid offensive output in the first half against Minnesota in the Big 10 Tourney. I guess I have to make the upset pick here, don't I?

Siena wins 64-56.

(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Old Dominion

I really can't stand Notre Dame. I really want to pick against them. I can't stand anyone named Hansbrough. Not a fan of Luke Harangody either (and truth be told, ND has played better without him). Still, ND is just on too much of a roll right now.

Irish fight on, 76-67.

(3) Baylor vs. (14) Sam Houston St.

Baylor has Tweety Carter. Sam Houston St. has, uh, I have no idea. Next.

Baylor wins a shootout 88-80.

(7) Richmond vs. (10) St. Mary's

Another trendy upset pick. St. Mary's beat Gonzaga for the WCC title. Richmond almost beat Wake earlier this year (when Wake was good). I'll resort to the Dominant Mascot Theory. Spider beat Gaels. Per Wikipedia, The term in its broadest sense is used to refer to the Irish, Highland Scots (or Scots of Gaelic or mixed Gaelic descent) and Manx. Since this game would be played shortly after St. Patrick's Day, the Gaels would all be hung over.

Spiders spin a web, any size, catch the Gaels just like flies, look out! Richmond wins 58-54.

(2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris

Poor Bob Morris, I don't think he'll be able to guard Scottie Reynolds. Even if he could, what about the other four players?

'Nova cruises 91-58.

Second Round:

(1) Duke vs. (9) Louisville

Originally, I had this pegged as an upset special. Louisville has the athletes that it would take to frustrate Duke, but I just don't think they have the discipline to play smart for 40 minutes. Duke has enough veteran leadership to outlast Louisville.

Duke advances 67-58.

(5) Texas A&M vs. (13) Siena

Billy Gillespie used to coach at Texas A&M. Paul Hewitt used to coach at Siena. As Nick Bakay would say, Push.

Aggies win 71-58.

(3) Baylor vs. (6) Notre Dame

Another Big 12-Big East slugfest. As hot as ND has been down the stretch, they will definitely be the fashionable pick here. Baylor plays mostly zone defense and ND is a good 3-point shooting team. Recipe for an upset? I think Baylor is able to use their speed to frustrate the slower ND team.

Bears win 74-71.

(2) Villanova vs. (7) Richmond

One factor definitely in Villanova's favor is experience. Scottie Reynolds & Co. have made deep tournament runs before. Richmond is far less experienced (last NCAA appearance in 2004). Here's where it shows.

Wildcats advance 78-66.

Sweet Sixteen:

(1) Duke vs. (5) Texas A&M

A good matchup for Duke. A&M is not the big, fast, athletic team it will take to beat Duke. If Duke doesn't beat themselves, they'll advance to the Elite Eight.

Duke wins 68-61.

(2) Villanova vs. (3) Baylor

Now we're talkin'! This will be an up-and-down game full of 3 pointers from Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, LaceDarious Dunn, & Tweety Carter. A true smorgasbord of guard play. I think the 'Nova guards make one more play than the Baylor guards.

'Nova gets to face Duke... again. 76-73.

Elite Eight:

(1) Duke vs. (2) Villanova

Villanova absolutely ran Duke out of the gym in their matchup last year, winning 77-54. That said, Duke is better this year and their hole in the middle is not quite as pronounced with the improvement of Brian Zoubek and the emergence of the Plumlee brothers. Still, can Duke win when at least two of their big 3 of Scheyer, Singler, and Smith don't score? Heck, they barely beat a mediocre Georgia Tech team in the ACC Tourney final with Scheyer and Singler having off shooting nights. Duke haters, this is your game. Reynolds and Fisher lead 'Nova to an early lead and Duke just can't quite shoot themselves back in it.

'Nova makes it back to the Final Four, winning 73-64.

Well, we're halfway through the brackets, with Kentucky and Villanova making their way to the Final Four. Tomorrow, I'll try to make the bracket predictions for the Midwest and West Regions. Stay tuned!

NCAA Tournament - East Region Preview

Welcome to my NCAA Preview Blogs. I'll predict each region in a blog and then the Final Four in a separate blog. This way, you'll know who not to pick in your office pools....

The at-large field is one of the weaker in recent memory. All of the talking heads on ESPN had all 1 and 2 seeds advancing. Will I? Stay Tuned...

First Round:

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) E. Tenn. St.

Should be a cakewalk for the Wildcats. John Wall will spend most of the last 10 minutes of the game doing his dance for the cameras.

UK wins 101-64.

(8) Texas vs. (9) Wake Forest

Battle of the flame-outs. Both teams struggled mightily down the stretch. Both teams can't hit free throws. Hey, somebody's got to win, right?

Wake wins 71-70 because it would make my wife happy.

(5) Temple vs. (12) Cornell

Cornell is the trendy upset pick. They almost upset Kansas in the regular season. Temple beat Villanova. This should be a great game.

Temple wins 64-62 on a buzzer-beater.

(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Wofford

Wisconsin plays ugly Big 10 basketball. But that ugly basketball beat both Duke and Maryland. Wofford's mascot is the Terriers. So they can't even count on the Dominant Mascot Theory.

Wisconsin Badgers the Terriers 68-51.

(6) Marquette vs. (11) Washington

Washington had to win the Pac 10 tourney to get a bid. Of course the Pac 10 tourney was almost as competitive as the 1995 NC State Intramural 'C' League tourney that we got robbed in on a crappy over the back call. Of course, Marquette lost at home to NC State, but now that's a quality loss!

Golden Eagles prevail 71-65.

(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Montana

Great mascot matchup. Lobos vs. Grizzlies.

I think the Fightin' Steve Alfords (New Mexico) win easily 81-60.

(7) Clempson vs. (10) Missouri

Each year, my ACC bias makes me pick Clempson to win a game or two and each year they lose. If this works, you owe me, Purnell.

Mizzou 67-61.

(2) West by God Virginia vs. (15) Morgan St.

While Morgan St. is well named, WVU is too good. As they say up there, Let's Go Mountaineers, Let's Go Drink Some Beers!

WVU in a cakewalk 88-55.

Second Round:

(1) Kentucky vs. (9) Wake Forest

Wake has the size to bang with Cousins and Patterson in Aminu, Woods, and McFarland. Wake has the speed and defense to keep up with Wall in Ish Smith and L.D. Williams. So it will come down to coaching. John Calipari vs. Dino Gaudio. Uh, yeah... sorry, dear.

'Ca..., er, Kentucky wins 87-63.

(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Temple

First team to 50 points wins! This game might be a cure for insomnia, or it might be a classic tourney finish. I'll predict the former.

Wisconsin wins 52-48.

(3) New Mexico vs. (6) Marquette

New Mexico's best wins are against Texas A&M and Cal. Cal?!?!?

Marquette leads the Big East charge into the Sweet 16 67-65.

(2) West by God Virginia vs. (10) Missouri

Should be a very fast-paced game. WVU can handle the pressure, though.

WVU advances 81-71.

Sweet 16:

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Wisconsin

They just don't have athletes like Wall, Cousins, Patterson, etc in the Big 10. This game is only close if Kentucky keeps it that way.

UK wins 76-63.

(2) West by God Virginia vs. (6) Marquette

These two teams met once in the regular season with the Mountaineers winning on a buzzer beater. WVU is playing better now and while it will be a close game, it won't be a Gus Johnson classic.

WVU prevails 66-59.

Elite Eight:

(1) Kentucky vs. (2) West by God Virginia

Now this game has the makings of a classic. The SEC champs against the Big East Champs for the right to go the Final Four. West Virginia's depth and defense will frustrate Kentucky. Will the Wildcats be able to withstand their first real test of the tourney against the veteran Mountaineers? I say John Wall starts to discover his inner Derrick Rose and wills the Wildcats to a Final Four berth.

UK advances to the Final Four 77-73.

It only remains to be seen whether John Calipari has to vacate this Final Four berth like his two previous trips. Only time will tell.

Next time, I'll preview the South Regional. Stay tuned!

Kick The Tires And Light The Fires! - Formula 1 and IndyCar Preview

That's right, faithful reader, it's time for yet another niche sport that I watch and you don't... open wheel racing. I got hooked on open wheel racing when I was a kid and ESPN was desperate for programming so they would show live Formula 1 (F1) races from Europe. As time went on, I began to watch the CART series race here in the US.

IndyCar Series Preview:

The State of American Open Wheel Racing:

Since the mid-'90s, open wheel racing in the US has fallen off the veritable cliff thanks to the disastrous CART-IRL schism. I mean, even Gary Bettman (commissioner of the NHL and generally reviled by everyone except his mother) thinks that IRL founder Tony George is a poor promoter and manager of his sport. Eventually, CART's business model failed and Tony George's deep pockets (thanks to his family's ownership of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway) prevailed. Well, thanks to a power play at the IMS board, Tony George is now out as the head honcho of the IRL, replaced by Randy Bernard. The series has struggled with sponsorships for the teams, and consequently, many teams are forced to accept lesser drivers who bring sponsors with them. Quality North American drivers like Graham Rahal, Paul Tracy, and Buddy Rice are rideless (at the present time) and backmarkers like Milka Duno have full season commitments thanks to the funding issues. After all, no bucks, no Buck Rogers.

On the track, the dominance of Target Chip Ganassi Racing (Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon) and Team Penske (Ryan Briscoe, Helio (Dancing With The Stars) Castroneves, and Will Power) have been overshadowed by the marketing phenomenon known as Danica Patrick. She is a good driver, perhaps very good on the ovals, but the overwhelming amount of attention she gets (especially in her NASCAR foray) really does start to take away from those who might deserve it more. Last year, Dario Franchitti beat out teammate Scott Dixon and Ryan Briscoe for the championship in the last race in Homestead. Will this year bring new blood in victory lane or more Penske/Ganassi dominance? I'll break the series down by team...

The Contenders:

Target Chip Ganassi Racing:

Dario Franchitti (10):
The defending champ and Mr. Ashley Judd. He came back to Indycars after his disastrous foray into NASCAR in '08. He can win on road courses and ovals. He's won the Indy 500. Really has few weaknesses. Top team and equipment.

Scott Dixon (9):
The 2003 and 2008 series champ. Won the Indy 500 in 2008 as well. Like Franchitti has very few weaknesses. He did have a couple of accidents last year which may have cost him the title.

Team Penske:

Ryan Briscoe (6):
Lost out on the championship by mere points. Excellent on the road courses and getting better on the ovals. The likely favorite this year.

The Darkhorses:

Team Penske: Helio Castroneves (3) and Will Power (12):
Castroneves won the Indy 500 but struggled most of the rest of the season. Power is recovering from a broken back. He will be a force on the road courses but most likely not good enough on the ovals.

Andretti Autosport: Tony Kanaan (11):
Had a horrible 2009 season but is capable of winning on any track. Will the team give him a good enough car, though?

The Others That Can Win:

Andretti Autosport: Danica Patrick (7), Marco Andretti (26), and Ryan Hunter-Reay (37):
Danica can win on ovals, but is really bad on road courses. Andretti struggles with crashing. Hunter-Reay is in his first year with good equipment. He's won in the past on road courses.

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing: Justin Wilson (22):
He's dangerous on any road course and can and should win a couple this year. The big question is the quality of equipment he'll get.

Panther Racing: Dan Wheldon (4):
Good driver, just can't seem to get it done with this team.

Sarah Fisher Racing/???: Graham Rahal (67): Should be in a better car with a better team. If he ever gets with a top team, look out. Still crashes too much, especially on ovals.

Others of Note:

KV Racing: Takuma Sato (5), E.J. Viso (8), Mario Moraes (32), Paul Tracy (15):

Sato is an F1 vet. Viso and Moraes are young drivers who will be race winners someday. Tracy deserves a fulltime ride in the twilight of his career. Still has more personality and balls that the rest of the field put together.

The Predictions:

• Ganassi and Penske win 14 of the 17 races including the Indy 500 (I'll say Franchitti wins it).
• Justin Wilson and Will Power each win twice on road courses.
• Danica Patrick makes more headlines than anyone else due to her flirtations with NASCAR and ticks off drivers by doing so. She has one podium, three top 5s and no wins.
• Tony Kanaan wins a race, as does Graham Rahal.
• There is one surprise winner, I say Dan Wheldon at Texas.
• Scott Dixon edges Ryan Briscoe for the series title.
  

Formula 1 Series Preview:

The last two years have provided good racing on the track and political upheaval off of it. Cost cutting measures were proposed. Existing teams and manufacturers threatened a breakaway series. In the end, nothing happened. There is new management in the series, featuring former Ferrari boss, Jean Todt.

3 new teams have entered this year's championship. A fourth, American based USF1, could not produce their car in time. Last year's Constructors' Champions (Team Championship), Brawn Mercedes, have re-badged themselves as Mercedes GP. They managed to lure Michael Schumacher out of retirement. This is much like Michael Jordan coming out of retirement to play in the NBA. We'll see if Schumacher is the Bulls' Jordan or the Wizards' Jordan. Last year's champion Jenson Button switched to McLaren Mercedes. Two time World Champion Fernando Alonso has gone to Ferrari. There are many other changes up and down the grid. I'll summarize in the predictions.

The Teams:

Title Contenders:

McLaren Mercedes:

Jenson Button (1) / Lewis Hamilton (2):

Both Brits and the last 2 World Champions. Can they coexist on the same team? McLaren is famous for allowing its drivers to duke it out amongst themselves. McLaren had an awful car at the beginning of 2009, torpedoing Hamilton's chances from the beginning. If they get a good start, look out. Button leaves last year's champs and looks to stake his claim as England's hero... unless Hamilton does it first.

Ferrari:

Felipe Massa (7) / Fernando Alonso (8):

Like McLaren, Ferrari struggled at the beginning of last year. Massa missed the latter part of the year due to inuries sustained when a bolt from another car flew off and hit him in the helmet. Can he return to form? Alonso is a great driver, but impatient if things don't go as he expects them to.

Red Bull Renault:

Sebastian Vettel (5) / Mark Webber (6):

Vettel was the runner-up last year. He just could not overcome the overwhelming lead Button amassed during the first part of the season. He might be the favorite this year. Webber had reliability issues, both with car and driver last year.

Mercedes GP:

Michael Schumacher (3) / Nico Rosberg (4):

They are only listed as contenders in deference to Schumacher's amazing career. At 41, can he recapture the magic? Rosberg is a classic Schumacher #2 driver. There are no questions whose team this is.

Podium Contenders:

Williams Cosworth:

Rubens Barrichello (9) / Nico Hulkenburg (10):

Barrichello can run at the front in any given weekend providing the car runs well. Hulkenburg is a rookie.

Renault:

Robert Kubica (11) / Vitaly Petrov (12):

Kubica has won races for BMW in the past. Petrov is a rookie. Not much expected of him.

The Others

Force India Mercedes:

Adrian Sutil (14) / Vitantonio Liuzzi (15):

Sutil has run up front in some races. Liuzzi is a former Toro Rosso driver.

Toro Rosso Ferrari:

Sebastien Buemi (16) / Jaime Alguersuari (17):

Young drivers, both have shown promise.

Lotus Cosworth:

Jarno Trulli (18) / Heikki Kovaleinen (19):

Veteran drivers, new team. They'll get the most out of the car which probably won't be enough to get many points.

HRT Cosworth:

Karun Chandhok (20) / Bruno Senna (21):

Bruno is the nephew of F1 legend Ayrton Senna. Never heard of Chandhok. This team will be a veritable moving chicane in some races.

BMW Sauber Ferrari:

Pedro de la Rosa (22) / Kamui Kobayashi (23):

de la Rosa is a veteran test driver. The BMW name was only kept due to some weird rule. They'll struggle.

Virgin Cosworth:

Timo Glock (24) / Lucas di Grassi (25):

Glock is an F1/Champ Car vet. Driving for a new team will certainly test his patience.

Predictions:

• McLaren wins the Constructors' Championship in a close fight with Ferrari and Red Bull.
• Hamilton and Button take enough points away from each other for Vettel to win the World Drivers' Championship. Alonso also factors into the title fight. All 4 drivers are in contention at the final race of the season.
  
• Schumacher wins one race.... in the rain.
• Drivers complain a lot about the new teams being too slow and a race or two may be affected by them.
• All races are won by the top 4 teams (McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes).

There you have it, the longest blog that you'll never read. Enjoy, kids, and as the great Murray Walker once said, "In Formula 1, anything can happen and it usually does!".

The ACC Tournament, A Preview and Retrospective

The ACC Tournament was always the biggest statewide cultural event of my youth. In school on quarterfinal Friday, most teachers would bring TVs into the classroom and allow the class to watch the games while doing the assignments. In the classes that didn't do this, most kids would sneak a listen to the radio. On Semifinal Saturday, no matter where I was or what I was doing, I had the games on the radio. Same with Championship Sunday.

Now this event has been diluted. The ACC expansion has added games to the tournament, now including a full day's worth of games on Thursday. Also, there is just so much more available to do, not just for kids, but adults, too. I guess, as I get older, the past does get romanticized a bit.

Throughout my time at NC State, the basketball team was horrible. I mean, putrid, disgusting, abhorrent, you name it. In the 9-team ACC, the 8th and 9th place teams played on Thursday night in what was termed the Play-In game. In my first 4 years of college, NC State played and lost all four Thursdays. That fifth year, State won on Thursday and it was one of the best moments of my college career actually watching State play on Quarterfinal Friday.

So, for those of you who didn't grow up here, when you hear the locals talk endlessly about the ACC Tournament, remember that for most of us, it's not just a game, or a weekend, but a bit of our cultural and regional identity.

Now, onto the predictions....

Over at the Average Guy's Sports Blog, there is a very in-depth ACC Tourney Preview, go check it out.

Here are my predictions, take them for what they're worth...

Opening Round (The Les Robinson Invitational):

Afternoon Session:

Boston College (8) vs. Virginia (9)

The team that nobody wants against the team that nobody can figure out. BC has managed a respectable conference finish despite having a roster filled with players nobody on their own campus would recognize. Virginia started very strong in the ACC and fizzled late in the season. With Sylven Landesberg suspended, the talent edge should go to BC. I expect big games from Reggie Jackson (Mr. March?) and Joe Trapani. I also expect approximately 37 fans to attend. BC wins 67-58.

Wake Forest (5) vs. Miami (12)

Wake has the definite talent edge. Ish Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu were both on the All-ACC second team. Wake has height to spare and Miami's best post player (Dwayne Collins) is likely out for the tournament. So this has all the marks of a blowout, right? Well, this Superman has his kryptonite. Wake absolutely cannot solve a zone defense. If the outside shot doesn't fall, then the offense bogs down completely. So Miami has a chance, but Wake is too good to blow it against the U, aren't they? Wake wins 73-61 in front of a great deal of their local fans.

Evening Session:

Georgia Tech (7) vs. North Carolina (10)

Welcome to the Les Robinson Invitational, Heel fans, I hope you enjoy your stay! Tech swept UNC, dominating the first half at Chapel Hill and holding on late and winning easily in Atlanta. UNC has a Hall of Fame coach and 7 McDonalds All Americans (even if a couple are injured), but they have been incredibly weak mentally and emotionally this year, both players and coaching staff. If the Heels show up ready to play, they could make a run. However, I think they've quit. GT with the sweep, 74-59. Tickets are plentiful and cheap from here on out.

Clempson (6) vs. NC State (11)

It wouldn't be the Les Robinson Invitational without my Wolfpack. The teams played once this year, with Clempson escaping late at the RBC Center. State has played better late in the year and it seems that Sidney Lowe has finally got his point across to the team in terms of the efficiency of the offensive sets and the effort on the defensive end of the court. Tracy Smith has been a consistent performer offensively all year, but Clempson is just not a good matchup for State. Clempson presses and State's guards tend to turn the ball over too much. If State can break the press, get the ball to Smith, and hit outside shots when available, they can win. But I don't think all 3 happen. The awe-inspiring power of Dennis Horner's flaming basketball tattoo just isn't enough. Clempson wins 67-64 and next year finally arrives for fans in Raleigh with the Harrow/Brown/Leslie or Cothron class.

Quarterfinal Friday:

This should be a state holiday in North Carolina. One of the greatest days of the year.

Afternoon Session:

Duke (1) vs. Boston College (8)

Duke has the better roster, better coach, and more motivation (potential number one NCAA seed). Duke ought to be a bit more at home in this ACC Tourney as there most likely won't be masses of UNC fans rooting against them at every turn. Duke rolls 84-61.

Virginia Tech (4) vs. Wake Forest (5)

This should be the most competitive game of the day. Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson can flat out score for the Hokies. Hopefully, fans of both teams can make the atmosphere live up to the traditional ACC Tourney feel. An important key will be for Virginia Tech to keep Jeff Allen out of foul trouble and for Wake's L.D. Williams and Ish Smith to not only play tough defense against Delaney and Hudson, but to score some points of their own to relieve some of the pressure on Aminu. I think Wake wins in a nailbiter, 73-71.

Evening Session:

Maryland (2) vs. Georgia Tech (7)

The key to this game will be to see whether or not Maryland wears those grotesque yellow uniforms. Seriously, Maryland's backcourt of (General) Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes should dominate GT's guards. If Jordan Williams and Landon Milbourne can hold their own against Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal, then the Terps should win. Of course it took twin buzzer beaters for Maryland to beat GT last time. I'll say buzzer beating heroics are not needed.... yet. Terps 68-62.

Florida State (3) vs. Clempson (6)

Ah, the Bowden Bowl! Charlie Ward vs. Woody Dantzler! Chief Osceola vs. Howard's Rock! Oh, wait, this is basketball? This game is really an indictment of the ACC this year. FSU as a 3 seed shows how very weak the ACC is. Give them credit, though, FSU has won almost all of the games they were supposed to win, unlike many other ACC teams. Solomon Alabi is a good player, but not a great one. Heck, he's more Rodney Dobard than Douglas Edwards (look it up, they're both early '90s FSU post men). Can Leonard Hamilton eff up this free ice cream? Most likely, but it will not be in this game. FSU survives Trevor Booker and Clempson, 61-59

Semifinal Saturday:

Duke (1) vs. Wake Forest (5)

The NC private schools face off while their public brethren ponder the vagaries of the NIT. Next thing you'll tell me smoking as been banned in North Carolina restaurants... Anyway, I see this game being ugly and chippy, with at least three technical fouls called (I'm looking in your general direction, Chas McFarland). In a chippy game, generally, the more mentally tough team wins. Scheyer and Nolan Smith go for a combined 50 points and Wake misses enough outside shots and free throws to cost them the game. Duke wins 74-64.

Maryland (2) vs. Florida State (3)

Maryland swept FSU during the regular season by a total of 13 points. Expect another close game with Alabi and Singleton of FSU getting second shots and gatbage points to keep the game close. I think Vasquez' experience carries the day for Maryland in the second half. Terps win 70-68.

Championship Sunday:

Duke (1) vs. Maryland (2)

This sets up the dream matchup for the ACC, ESPN, and people who want to see the two best teams face off for the right to cut down the nets. The two teams split the season series, with Brian Zoubek having the game of his life in Duke's blowout win at home and Greivis Vasquez getting to mack on Erin Andrews after Maryland stunned Duke at College Park. The key for Maryland is keeping Duke from making the 4 or 6 point run into a 10 or 12 point run like they did in Durham. It will take a superhuman effort from Vasquez for Maryland to win. I think he has it in him, but Duke's depth proves to be too much for Maryland in the end. Duke wins 68-64. Your MVP will be Kyle Singler.

Of course, by making these predictions, I have ensured a Virginia Tech - UNC final or something of that sort. Have fun watching the hoops. Maybe Billy Packer and Mr. Cash will make a guest appearance.

College and Minor League Baseball - Because Every Blog Can't Be About Hockey

I've always been a college and minor league baseball fan. Growing up in Greenville, NC, we often made the short drive to Kinston to see the Single-A Carolina League Kinston Indians and ECU always had a very good baseball program. In college, at NC State, it was a common occurrence for a group of us to go over to Doak Field on a Friday afternoon after class and catch an ACC ballgame. I got to see major leaguers like Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, Paul Wilson, and JD Drew play against the Wolfpack. Under Ray Tanner and later Elliott Avent, the 'Pack always played at a pretty good level.

Now, living in Raleigh, we're blessed with an embarrassment of riches when it comes to both college and minor league baseball. The Triple-A Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays affiliate) play in a great ballpark in downtown Durham. There are great seats for less than $10. After the game, Tyler's Taproom (free plug!) is a great place to have a post-game beverage. Over in Zebulon, the Double-A Carolina Mudcats (Cincinnati Reds affiliate) do a great job in making the games a family friendly event. Typically, the MLB teams send their to prospects to Double-A so the talent level tends to be pretty high.

The ACC is almost always among the top 2 or 3 conferences in college baseball. Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson are threats to go to the College World Series on a yearly basis. Over the last few years, UNC has had a top-5 program and made yearly trips to Omaha (yes, it really pained me to write that, but there's that whole intellectual honesty thing). Heck, even former also-rans like Duke and Maryland have really stepped up their programs. Nearly every weekend between late February and May, one of the local teams will be playing at home.

This past Sunday, my wife and I decided to head over to Doak Field on the NC State campus to take in the third game of the Wolfpack's season opening series against LaSalle. State's hitting was pretty good, as the 'Pack scored 15 runs. Both teams' pitchers had control problems all day, though, and it made for a very long game. The best thing about the afternoon: 62 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. Being outside in such great weather was the perfect cure for the late winter blues.

So, as the weather warms up, take the family and catch a game at the local ballpark. The tickets and the drive are both reasonable. The popcorn and sunflower seeds are just as good as they are in the big league parks. Besides, you never know which player on the other team may be named in some future generation's Mitchell Report. So, what are you waiting for?

Olympic Hockey USA-CAN Preview

As a kid who grew up in the South, my first real introduction to hockey was via my extended family from PA and via the Olympics. In 1980, for the Miracle on Ice, I was only 5 years old, but the legend of that team has not only survived the test of time, but has even grown through the years.

Tonight, almost 30 years to the day after the Miracle on Ice upset of the USSR, the USA Olympic Hockey team plays a game against the heavily favored Canadian Olympic team. The Canadians are stacked from 1-to-20 on their team. From Sidney Crosby, to Martin Brodeur in net, to Chris Pronger on defense, Canada is the overwhelming favorite to win the gold medal on their home soil.

The US team is in a transition period. Longtime stalwarts Mike Modano, Bill Guerin, Jeremy Roenick, and Keith Tkachuk have been replaced by younger players like Zach Parise, Erik Johnson, and Ryan Miller. The team is a bit green in major international competition with only a few holdovers from the 2006 Olympic team.

It's important to know that tonight's game is only for seeding into the knockout round. The winner will have a bye into the quarterfinals. The loser will have to win 4 games (think ACC Tournament bracket). All of the pressure is on Canada tonight. There are thousands in attendance inside the arena and millions of Canadians equally absorbed in front of their TVs.

Tonight's game will be a great measuring stick for the US squad. I'll predict that Canada strikes early for a 2-0 lead after the 1st period. The US will adjust and make it 2-1 in the 2nd, but Canada will pull away for a 5-2 win. I'll predict the line of Marleau-Heatley-Thornton (all of the San Jose Sharks) to have a big game. I also predict that if the US and Canada meet during the knockout round, that it will be a much tighter game.

I also predict that some bastard in Vancouver still has my laptop and I hope they get what's coming to them....

Hurricanes at the Olympic Trade Deadline

Today, the Hurricanes traded Matt Cullen to the Ottawa Senators for Alexandre Picard and a 2nd round draft pick. Unfortunately, these are the type of moves that GM Jim Rutherford has to make given his circumstances. The 'Canes horrific start to the season has made it nearly impossible to envision a playoff run. Even worse, the team has been up against the salary cap all year long. The math is simple:

Underachieving team + Small market + Aging roster + Recession = Fire sale

So what does this trade mean? Fan favorites like Cullen (and in the future, Ray Whitney) will be shipped to contenders for picks and/or prospects. So far, the Hurricanes have three 2nd round picks in the 2010 draft (they acquired Buffalo's pick from San Jose for Niclas Wallin last week). Picard is a restricted free agent after this season. Basically, the rest of this season is a tryout for him to see if the 'Canes are interested in keeping him around for the long term.

The roster has its core young talent like Eric Staal, Cam Ward, Brandon Sutter, etc. The old guard is on its way out. The mission statement is to have a younger, faster, cheaper team in 2010-2011. It will remain to be seen how far the youth movement goes throughout the rest of this season and into the offseason. Will other veterans be traded? Will unrestricted free agents like the recently departed Cullen and the soon to be traded Whitney return in the offseason? Will the 'Canes get a top 3 draft pick? Only time will tell.

Welcome Back My Friends, To The Show That Never Ends

This blog is about my thoughts and observations on the sports world. I have no insider information. I'm just a fan. Here are my fan credentials....

I love my alma mater, NC State, and have been a season ticket holder in football there for years. I've attended over 30 college football games over the last three years. I love ACC basketball. I'm an avid hockey fan and a season ticket holder to the Carolina Hurricanes. I love football and open wheel racing, especially Formula One and Indycar. I can tolerate NASCAR and baseball. I've become interested in MMA. I watch too much ESPN, so I think that I have a pretty broad sports knowledge.

So let's see where this wave takes us. I'm so glad you could attend....